David Fry's Total Bases props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 38.1% overs across 21 games with an average of 1.67 against typical 2.45 lines. The -0.8 differential and +18.2% under ROI signal consistent value on the low side.
Expert Analysis
David Fry's home Total Bases performance reveals a clear pattern of underperformance that creates systematic betting value. Averaging 1.67 total bases against lines typically set around 2.45, Fry consistently falls short by nearly a full base at Progressive Field. This 0.8-base deficit isn't marginal variance—it represents a fundamental disconnect between market perception and actual production. The 38.1% over rate across 21 games provides robust sample size evidence, while the +18.2% under ROI demonstrates this edge has translated to profit. Fry's role as a backup catcher and utility player likely contributes to this trend, as irregular playing time and defensive responsibilities can impact offensive rhythm at home. The longest under streak of six games suggests this isn't random clustering but reflects underlying factors like familiar opposing pitching or pressure in home environments. Most tellingly, Fry has managed just one current under in his streak, indicating recent consistency with this pattern. Without significant role changes or lineup adjustments, this home-specific underperformance appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.8-base deficit and 38.1% over rate create consistent value, particularly when lines approach 2.5. Target games where Fry faces quality pitching or enters with limited recent at-bats. Primary risk involves potential lineup elevation or unusually favorable matchups that could spike his production above typical utility role expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Fry's Total Bases prop record home games?
David Fry has gone 8-13 on Total Bases overs in home games, hitting just 38.1% across 21 games. This represents a clear underperforming pattern with only eight games exceeding his prop line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Fry Total Bases home games?
Bet under on David Fry's Total Bases props at home. The 0.8-base deficit between his 1.67 average and typical 2.45 lines, combined with +18.2% under ROI, creates consistent value on the low side.
What's David Fry's average Total Bases home games?
David Fry averages 1.67 total bases in home games, falling 0.8 bases short of typical 2.45 prop lines. This significant gap represents nearly a full base of value when betting the under.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fry's Total Bases unders when he faces quality opposing pitching or enters games with limited recent playing time. His utility role creates the most value when lines remain elevated around 2.5 total bases.