David Fry's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over his last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. The Cleveland catcher is averaging 0.3 home runs against a typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
David Fry's power drought represents a classic case of a utility player reverting to his true talent level after an early-season hot streak. The 30% over rate across 10 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a mathematical reality reflecting Fry's limited pop as a backup catcher. His 0.3 home run average sits 40% below the standard 0.5 line, suggesting oddsmakers are still pricing in optimism from his brief power surge earlier in the season. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a market correction in progress, where books have been slow to adjust to Fry's regression to career norms. As a part-time player splitting duties behind the plate, Fry lacks the consistent at-bats needed to maintain elevated power numbers. His current two-game under streak aligns with his longer pattern of disappointment, and the three-game under streak within this sample shows his most natural tendency. The 33.6% ROI on unders reflects genuine market inefficiency, particularly when considering Fry's limited role and the Guardians' tendency to platoon their catching position. This isn't a temporary slump—it's a return to reality for a player whose power numbers were never sustainable at this level.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. David Fry's home run props offer exceptional value on the under side, backed by a 70% hit rate and strong 33.6% ROI over his last 10 games. The 0.2 differential between his average and the typical line creates a mathematical edge that should persist as long as books continue overvaluing his limited power potential. Target unders when the line sits at 0.5, as Fry's part-time role and regression to career norms make consistent power production unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Fry's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
David Fry has gone 3-7 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of his over bets. He's averaging 0.3 home runs compared to the typical 0.5 line, showing a clear pattern of underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Fry Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on David Fry's home runs with high confidence. His 70% under hit rate and 33.6% ROI on unders over the last 10 games creates exceptional value, especially at the standard 0.5 line.
What's David Fry's average Home Runs last 10 games?
David Fry is averaging 0.3 home runs over his last 10 games, which sits 0.2 below the typical 0.5 line. This 40% gap between his production and market expectations creates consistent value on the under side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target David Fry home run unders when the line is set at 0.5, particularly in day games or when he's catching instead of DHing. His part-time role and limited power make these spots ideal for under betting.