David Fry's home run prop presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 45 of 52 games (86.5% under rate) with a devastating -74.3% ROI on overs. His 0.13 home run average sits 74% below the standard 0.5 line, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
David Fry's home run futility represents a fundamental mismatch between sportsbook pricing and reality. Averaging just 0.13 home runs per game against a 0.5 line reveals a player whose power profile doesn't justify standard prop pricing. The 86.5% under rate across 52 games isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance relative to market expectations. Fry's longest homer streak spans just two games, while his longest drought reached 27 contests, highlighting the rarity of his power displays. The -74.3% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently overpriced his home run props have been, while under bettors enjoyed a robust 65.2% return. This isn't a hot streak or cold spell; it's a sustained pattern reflecting Fry's true offensive capabilities. The current two-game under streak aligns perfectly with his established tendencies. Without meaningful power surge indicators or dramatic role changes, this trend appears sustainable. Sportsbooks continue pricing Fry as if he possesses standard major league power, creating persistent value for under bettors who recognize his actual offensive limitations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Fry's 86.5% under rate and massive -0.4 line differential create exceptional value that transcends typical regression concerns. The 52-game sample provides robust evidence of systematic overpricing, while his power profile suggests continued struggles reaching 0.5 home runs. Bet under in all standard conditions unless facing extreme pitcher matchups or shortened games that might alter the prop structure.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Fry's Home Runs prop record all games?
David Fry has gone 7-45-0 on home run overs across 52 games, hitting just 13.5% of his over bets. This translates to an 86.5% under rate, making him one of the most reliable under plays in baseball for home run props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Fry Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on David Fry's home runs with high confidence. His 86.5% under rate, 0.13 average against a 0.5 line, and +65.2% under ROI create exceptional value that has proven sustainable across 52 games.
What's David Fry's average Home Runs all games?
David Fry averages 0.13 home runs per game, sitting 0.37 homers below the typical 0.5 line. This massive 74% differential between his actual production and market expectations drives the consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet David Fry home run unders in standard conditions year-round. His power limitations transcend typical situational factors, making unders profitable regardless of opponent, venue, or recent form patterns.