David Fry has been a disaster for over bettors, hitting just 30.0% of his hits props over the last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI. Averaging only 0.8 hits against a 1.4 line creates a massive -0.6 differential that screams systematic underperformance. The under presents compelling value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of a hitter in serious decline. Fry's 0.8 hits per game average sits a staggering 0.6 hits below the typical 1.4 line, suggesting either the market hasn't adjusted to his current form or there are underlying factors crushing his contact ability. The 7-game under streak that preceded his current 2-game over run indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained performance issue. What's particularly telling is the severity of the underperformance - a -42.7% ROI on overs means bettors have been getting demolished backing Fry to exceed expectations. This level of consistent failure often stems from mechanical issues, reduced playing time, or lineup positioning changes that limit his opportunities. The recent 2-game over streak might tempt contrarians, but it's more likely a brief respite in an otherwise clear downward trend. Without any splits data to identify favorable spots, we're looking at a player whose current form suggests the market consistently overvalues his hit-getting ability. The 33.6% ROI on unders confirms this edge has been profitable and sustainable.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Fry's systematic underperformance against his hits line represents one of the clearest edges in player props. The -0.6 differential combined with a 70% under rate creates excellent value, especially when books haven't fully adjusted lines downward. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as Fry's current 0.8 average makes those numbers nearly impossible to reach consistently. The main risk is a sudden mechanical adjustment or increased playing time, but his recent form suggests continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Fry's Hits prop record last 10 games?
David Fry has gone over his hits prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30.0% rate) while going under 7 times. His 3-7-0 record shows consistent underperformance, with over bettors suffering a devastating -42.7% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Fry Hits last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on David Fry's hits props with high confidence. His 0.8 average sits 0.6 hits below the typical 1.4 line, creating excellent value for under bettors who have enjoyed a 33.6% ROI over this 10-game sample.
What's David Fry's average Hits last 10 games?
David Fry is averaging just 0.8 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.6 hits below the standard 1.4 line. This massive differential explains why over bettors have lost money at a -42.7% clip during this period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target David Fry under bets when the line is set at 1.5 or higher, as his current 0.8 average makes those numbers extremely difficult to reach. Avoid betting after strong offensive games, as his 7-game under streak shows consistency favors the under.