Daulton Varsho's total bases props present a clear under opportunity with just 45.8% overs across 59 games. His 1.24 average barely exceeds the typical 1.13 line, creating sustainable value for under bettors with +3.5% ROI versus -12.6% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Daulton Varsho's total bases production reveals a consistent pattern of underperformance relative to betting expectations. His 27-32 over/under record translates to hitting the over less than 46% of the time, well below the 52.4% break-even threshold for standard -110 odds. The modest 0.1 differential between his 1.24 average and the 1.13 line appears insignificant, but this small edge compounds over larger samples. Varsho's profile as a contact-oriented center fielder explains the trend—he prioritizes getting on base over power production, leading to frequent singles that barely move the total bases needle. The -12.6% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market overvalues his upside potential, likely influenced by his speed and athleticism creating inflated expectations. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, though regression toward his season average remains possible. The key concern for under bettors is sample size sustainability, as 59 games provides solid data but leaves room for variance. However, Varsho's playing style and approach suggest this trend reflects genuine skill tendencies rather than random fluctuation, making the under bias a legitimate long-term edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Varsho's 45.8% over rate creates legitimate value on the under side, supported by his contact-first approach that generates consistent singles rather than extra-base production. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 total bases, as his 1.24 average provides comfortable cushion. The primary risk is positive regression toward league norms, but his playing style suggests this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daulton Varsho's Total Bases prop record all games?
Daulton Varsho has gone over his total bases prop in 27 of 59 games (45.8%) from May 2023 through September 2024. His under record of 32-27 demonstrates consistent value on the under side with a +3.5% ROI compared to -12.6% on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daulton Varsho Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Daulton Varsho's total bases props. His 45.8% over rate falls well short of break-even requirements, while his contact-first hitting approach consistently produces singles rather than extra-base hits, creating sustainable value for under bettors.
What's Daulton Varsho's average Total Bases all games?
Daulton Varsho averages 1.24 total bases per game compared to his typical line of 1.13, creating just a 0.1 differential. This modest edge actually favors under bettors, as the small surplus rarely translates to covering inflated betting lines.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Varsho's total bases unders when the line sits at 1.5, as his 1.24 average provides comfortable margin. Avoid betting after extended over streaks of 3+ games, as short-term regression becomes more likely despite the long-term under trend.