Daulton Varsho's home run prop has been a consistent under play, hitting just 20.0% of the time over his last 10 games with a 2-8-0 record. His 0.2 average sits 0.3 homers below typical lines, generating +52.7% ROI on unders. This represents a strong fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Daulton Varsho's power drought over this 10-game stretch reveals a hitter struggling to elevate the baseball consistently. The 0.2 home run average against 0.5 lines suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced power output, creating persistent value on the under. Varsho's profile as a contact-oriented center fielder with gap power rather than true home run pop explains this trend's sustainability. The -61.8% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has been consistently fading his power props, while recreational bettors likely remain drawn to his name recognition from previous seasons. The current streak of two consecutive unders, following a previous three-game under streak, demonstrates the consistency of this trend. Without underlying swing changes or a significant shift in his approach, this power suppression appears structural rather than variance-driven. The 20% over rate across 10 games provides substantial sample size confidence, especially given Varsho's established profile as a player who contributes more through speed and defense than raw power.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Varsho's 20% over rate and -0.3 differential to the line create compelling under value that books haven't corrected. The +52.7% under ROI demonstrates sustainable edge, particularly when lines remain at 0.5+ home runs. Target this prop when Varsho faces quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly venues to maximize the edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Daulton Varsho props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daulton Varsho's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Varsho has gone 2-8-0 on home run props over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. His average of 0.2 home runs per game sits well below typical betting lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daulton Varsho Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Varsho's home run props. The 20% over rate and +52.7% under ROI create strong value, especially when lines remain at 0.5 or higher home runs per game.
What's Daulton Varsho's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Varsho is averaging 0.2 home runs over his last 10 games, which sits 0.3 below the typical 0.5 line. This significant differential explains the consistent under value in his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Varsho home run unders when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. The edge is strongest when books maintain 0.5+ lines despite his reduced power output.