Daulton Varsho's home run props present one of the sharpest under trends in baseball, hitting just 14.5% overs across 62 games with a devastating -0.35 differential versus the standard 0.5 line. His 9-53 record and +63.2% under ROI make this a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Varsho's home run futility stems from a fundamental shift in his offensive profile since joining Toronto. The centerfielder's 0.15 home runs per game average sits 70% below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders. His longest over streak spans just two games, while he's endured a brutal 22-game stretch without clearing the number. This isn't variance—it's structural. Varsho's swing has become more contact-oriented in Toronto's system, prioritizing plate coverage over power generation. His launch angle metrics and hard-hit rates suggest a player optimized for doubles and triples rather than home runs. The Blue Jays have seemingly embraced his speed-first skill set, positioning him as a table-setter rather than a run producer. Books continue setting the line at 0.5, likely influenced by his Arizona power numbers and positional expectations, but the data screams regression to his true talent level. The 22-game under streak represents the ceiling of this trend's sustainability, yet even modest positive regression wouldn't threaten consistent under value given his massive deficit.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Varsho's 14.5% over rate and -0.35 line differential create exceptional under value that books haven't properly adjusted for. Target this prop in all conditions, as no meaningful splits suggest situational variance. The primary risk is positive regression from his historic under pace, but even moderate improvement keeps unders profitable given the massive gap between his production and the line.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daulton Varsho's Home Runs prop record all games?
Varsho's home run prop record stands at 9-53-0 over/under across 62 games, producing just 14.5% overs. This translates to hitting the over roughly once every seven games, making it one of baseball's most reliable under trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daulton Varsho Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Varsho's home run props with high confidence. His 9-53 record and +63.2% under ROI provide exceptional value, as books haven't adjusted the 0.5 line to reflect his true 0.15 per-game average.
What's Daulton Varsho's average Home Runs all games?
Varsho averages 0.15 home runs per game compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.35 differential. This 70% gap between production and expectations drives the consistent under value in his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Varsho home run unders in all conditions, as no situational splits show meaningful variance. Target games when the line remains at 0.5, and consider increased stakes during hot streaks when books might inflate the number.