Dansby Swanson's total bases prop shows perfect equilibrium over his last 10 games, hitting 5-5-0 with a 2.1 average against a 2.2 line. The -0.1 differential and neutral -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests books have this number dialed in correctly, making this a clear pass in the current market.
Expert Analysis
Swanson's total bases performance reveals a market that's achieved near-perfect pricing efficiency. The 2.1 average against a consistent 2.2 line creates a microscopic edge that gets erased by standard juice, while the 50% hit rate confirms books aren't missing value in either direction. What makes this particularly telling is the streak pattern - alternating between modest over and under runs (longest streaks of 3 and 2 respectively) without any sustained directional bias. This suggests Swanson's current offensive output has stabilized around his seasonal mean, with daily variance falling within expected parameters. The lack of split data compounds the challenge, as we can't identify situational edges that might exist against specific pitcher types or in certain ballparks. Without clear driving factors pushing performance above or below the line consistently, this becomes a coin flip proposition where the house edge through juice makes both sides unprofitable long-term. The recent one-game under streak provides no meaningful insight given the sample size and historical alternating pattern.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. Swanson's total bases prop represents textbook efficient market pricing with no discernible edge on either side. The 2.1 average versus 2.2 line creates theoretical under value, but the -4.5% ROI demonstrates that juice eliminates any practical advantage. Without situational splits or clear performance drivers, this becomes a pure variance play where the house edge ensures long-term losses regardless of side selection.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dansby Swanson's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Swanson has gone 5-5-0 on his total bases over/under in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. His 2.1 average falls just 0.1 bases short of the typical 2.2 line, showing remarkable consistency around market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dansby Swanson Total Bases last 10 games?
Pass on both sides. The perfect 50/50 split and -4.5% ROI on both over and under demonstrate that sportsbooks have this prop priced efficiently. Without clear edges or situational advantages, this becomes an unprofitable coin flip.
What's Dansby Swanson's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Swanson is averaging 2.1 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the standard 2.2 line. This -0.1 differential suggests slight under value, but the minimal gap gets eliminated by typical betting juice and variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Swanson's total bases props until clear situational edges emerge. Look for significant line movement, specific pitcher matchups, or ballpark factors that create value. Current market pricing shows no exploitable inefficiencies worth pursuing.