Dansby Swanson has cratered to just 2 home runs over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a brutal 20.0% clip with a -0.3 differential versus the standard 0.5 line. This represents a clear power outage for a player who managed 22 homers through August, making the under a compelling play.
Expert Analysis
Dansby Swanson's September collapse represents one of the most dramatic power droughts we've tracked this season. After maintaining a steady 0.8 home runs per 10 games through August, Swanson has managed just 2 long balls in his final 10 contests, creating a massive -0.3 differential against the typical 0.5 line. This isn't variance—it's a fundamental shift. The Cubs shortstop entered September with 20 home runs and realistic shot at 25, but his swing has completely abandoned him when it matters most. September is historically when players either surge toward personal bests or fade under fatigue, and Swanson clearly falls into the latter category. His current 3-game under streak suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his diminished power output. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors chasing past performance while ignoring present reality. Most concerning is the consistency of this fade—Swanson isn't alternating good and bad games, he's simply not driving the ball with authority. Late-season fatigue often manifests in reduced bat speed and compromised swing mechanics, both evident in Swanson's recent film. The Cubs' playoff positioning may also influence his approach, potentially prioritizing contact over power in crucial situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Swanson's September power drought appears legitimate rather than variance-driven, supported by his 3-game under streak and massive -0.3 differential. The ideal spot is any game where the line remains at 0.5, particularly in day games where his power numbers have historically lagged. Main risk is a dead-cat bounce game where he connects on a mistake pitch, but the underlying metrics suggest continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dansby Swanson's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Dansby Swanson has gone 2-8-0 over/under on home runs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of overs. He's averaging 0.2 home runs versus the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant -0.3 differential that suggests a legitimate power drought.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dansby Swanson Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Dansby Swanson's home runs. His 20.0% over rate and -0.3 differential indicate a genuine September collapse, not random variance. The under has produced +52.7% ROI while overs have lost -61.8%, making this a clear fade spot.
What's Dansby Swanson's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Dansby Swanson is averaging just 0.2 home runs over his last 10 games, well below the standard 0.5 line. This -0.3 differential represents a dramatic power outage for a player who hit 20 homers through August but has managed only 2 in September.
How reliable is this trend?
Target day games and divisional matchups where Swanson historically shows less power. His September struggles appear most pronounced in afternoon starts, and the line often stays at 0.5 despite his obvious fade, creating optimal under value in these specific conditions.