Danny Jansen's home run prop at Rogers Centre presents a compelling under opportunity, with the veteran catcher going over just 25% of the time across 12 games. His 0.25 home runs per game average sits significantly below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders with a remarkable 43.2% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a hitter whose power doesn't translate at home despite playing in a traditionally hitter-friendly ballpark. Jansen's 0.25 home runs per game at Rogers Centre represents a stark disconnect from typical power expectations, particularly troubling for a catcher whose offensive value typically comes from the long ball. The current seven-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather part of a broader pattern that suggests fundamental issues with his approach or timing in familiar surroundings. Rogers Centre's dimensions should theoretically favor right-handed power, but Jansen has failed to capitalize consistently. The 25% over rate across 12 games provides substantial sample size confidence, especially when considering this spans nearly a full calendar year of data. Most concerning for over bettors is the absence of any sustained power surge—his longest over streak reached just two games. This consistency in failing to clear the standard 0.5 line suggests either mechanical issues, pitch recognition problems in familiar conditions, or simply a power profile that doesn't match the betting market's expectations. The -52.3% ROI on overs tells the complete story of a prop that has systematically disappointed bettors who chase the occasional home run.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jansen's home power numbers represent one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props, backed by a full season of consistent underperformance. The ideal betting spot comes when books post the standard 0.5 line, creating maximum value against his 0.25 average. The primary risk involves regression to career norms, but the sample size and consistency of results suggest this represents his current power ceiling at home rather than temporary struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Danny Jansen's Home Runs prop record home games?
Danny Jansen has gone 3-9-0 over/under on his home runs prop in home games, hitting the over just 25% of the time across 12 games. This represents one of the most consistent under trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Danny Jansen Home Runs home games?
Bet the under on Danny Jansen's home runs props at home with high confidence. His 0.25 average versus typical 0.5 lines creates excellent value, supported by a current seven-game under streak and 43.2% ROI.
What's Danny Jansen's average Home Runs home games?
Danny Jansen averages 0.25 home runs per game at home, sitting 0.2 below the standard 0.5 line. This significant gap between performance and market expectations creates consistent betting value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Danny Jansen home run unders when books post standard 0.5 lines at Rogers Centre. His consistent underperformance at home, regardless of opponent or situation, makes every home game a potential betting opportunity.