Corey Seager's home run props have been ice cold, hitting just 20.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal 2-8-0 record. The Rangers shortstop is averaging 0.4 homers per game against typical 0.6 lines, creating a -0.2 differential that screams value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Corey Seager's power drought represents a significant departure from his established baseline, with the 0.4 home run average falling 33% below standard pricing expectations. This isn't merely a cold streak—it's a sustained pattern spanning six weeks of action that suggests either mechanical issues or external factors suppressing his power output. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of books slow to adjust their lines, creating persistent value on the under side. Seager's current four-game under streak indicates momentum building in the wrong direction for power bettors, while his inability to string together consecutive over performances (longest streak: just 2) reveals inconsistent barrel contact. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates how profitable this fade has been, though regression risk grows with each passing game. Most concerning is the complete absence of power surges—elite hitters typically show flashes even during slumps, but Seager's output remains stubbornly flat. This pattern suggests either a mechanical flaw that hasn't been corrected or external pressures affecting his approach at the plate, making unders the logical play until something fundamentally changes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Seager's 20% over rate and -0.2 differential create clear mathematical value on the under, supported by his current four-game under streak. The ideal spot comes when books post 0.5+ lines, maximizing the gap between expectation and reality. Main risk is immediate regression—elite hitters don't stay cold forever, and one hot night could shift this entire narrative.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Corey Seager's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Corey Seager has gone 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of his over bets. He's averaging 0.4 home runs per game during this stretch, well below typical 0.6 lines offered by sportsbooks.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Corey Seager Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Corey Seager's home run props. His 20% over rate and -0.2 differential create clear mathematical value, supported by a current four-game under streak and 52.7% ROI on under bets during this sample.
What's Corey Seager's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Seager is averaging 0.4 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, which sits 0.2 below the typical 0.6 line that books offer. This 33% gap between performance and pricing represents the core value proposition for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Seager home run unders when books post lines at 0.5 or higher, maximizing the value gap. Avoid betting after any multi-homer games, as books will likely overadjust temporarily and eliminate the mathematical edge we're exploiting.