Corey Seager's home run props present a compelling under opportunity with just 7 overs in 28 games (25.0% hit rate). His 0.32 average sits well below the typical 0.54 line, creating a -0.2 differential that has generated +43.2% ROI on unders. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose power output consistently falls short of market expectations. Seager's 0.32 home run average across 28 games represents a significant gap from the standard 0.54 line, suggesting oddsmakers are overvaluing his longball potential. This isn't a small sample anomaly – we're looking at nearly a full season's worth of data spanning from late May 2023 through September 2024. The current four-game under streak extends a pattern of consistency, with Seager's longest over streak reaching just three games compared to a remarkable 10-game under run. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the persistence across different contexts and matchups. While power hitters can be volatile, Seager's production has remained stubbornly below market expectations regardless of opposing pitching or ballpark factors. The 25% over rate indicates this isn't random variance but a fundamental disconnect between perception and reality. However, regression remains a constant threat with any power hitter, and one hot streak could quickly alter these metrics.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.2 average differential combined with a 75% under success rate creates clear value, especially during Seager's current cold streak. Target games where the line sits at 0.5 or higher for maximum edge. Primary risk is a sudden power surge that could flip this trend, but the sample size suggests sustainable value on unders.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Corey Seager props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Corey Seager's Home Runs prop record all games?
Corey Seager's home run prop record shows 7 overs and 21 unders across 28 games, translating to a 25.0% over rate. This represents one of the more lopsided under trends among qualified hitters this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Corey Seager Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Corey Seager's home run props. The 75% under success rate and +43.2% ROI make this a clear value play, especially with his current four-game under streak maintaining the trend's momentum.
What's Corey Seager's average Home Runs all games?
Corey Seager averages 0.32 home runs per game compared to the typical 0.54 line, creating a -0.2 differential. This gap represents the core value in consistently betting unders on his longball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Seager home run unders when the line is set at 0.5 or higher, maximizing the value gap. His cold streaks tend to be longer than hot streaks, making current under runs ideal entry points.