Corbin Carroll's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 10% of overs across his last 10 games with a devastating -2.2 differential from the typical 3.4 line. This 1-9-0 record represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball props. The under side offers exceptional value.
Expert Analysis
Carroll's total bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of late-season factors that books haven't fully adjusted for. The centerfielder's 1.2 average against a 3.4 line represents a massive 65% shortfall that goes beyond normal variance. This isn't just a cold streak—it's a fundamental shift in approach and circumstances. Late September often sees established players like Carroll facing altered usage patterns, whether from playoff positioning, injury management, or simple fatigue accumulation. The seven-game under streak suggests systematic issues rather than random fluctuation. Most telling is the complete absence of multi-hit power games, indicating either diminished bat speed or more conservative plate approaches. While regression toward career norms seems inevitable, the consistency of this underperformance across different opponents and game situations suggests the underlying factors remain in play. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the story—this has been a one-way bet that shows no signs of immediate reversal. Books typically lag in adjusting lines for such dramatic form changes, especially when they contradict a player's established profile.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Carroll's total bases props have become automatic unders with a 90% hit rate and massive line value at -2.2 differential. The seven-game streak isn't variance—it's a systematic shift the market hasn't recognized. Best conditions are any standard total bases line above 2.5, with particular value when books set 3+ based on Carroll's reputation. Main risk is immediate lineup changes or rest, but current form trumps all other factors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Corbin Carroll props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Corbin Carroll's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Carroll has gone 1-9-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10% with an average of 1.2 total bases against typical lines around 3.4, creating a massive -2.2 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Corbin Carroll Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Carroll's 90% under rate and -2.2 line differential represent exceptional value that the market hasn't recognized, making unders the clear play until significant form changes emerge.
What's Corbin Carroll's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Carroll is averaging just 1.2 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 3.4, creating a massive 65% shortfall that represents one of the largest gaps in baseball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target any total bases line above 2.5, especially when books set 3+ based on Carroll's reputation. Avoid when he's listed as questionable or facing potential rest days in meaningless late-season games.