Corbin Carroll's Total Bases props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 38.5% overs across 52 games with a devastating -26.6% ROI on overs. His 1.81 average sits 0.7 bases below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders with a strong +17.5% return.
Expert Analysis
Carroll's home struggles with Total Bases props stem from Chase Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions and his own approach adjustments in Arizona. The 1.81 average against lines typically set around 2.5 creates a meaningful 0.7-base gap that books haven't adequately adjusted for. This isn't a small sample fluke—52 games represents substantial data showing Carroll consistently underperforms expectations at home. The current six-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern rather than suggesting regression. Carroll's speed-first profile means he relies heavily on getting on base to accumulate total bases, and home ballparks often see tighter strike zones that work against his patient approach. The -26.6% ROI on overs is particularly damaging, indicating books are pricing these props as if Carroll maintains his road power numbers at home. His longest over streak was just four games compared to six unders currently, showing the consistency of this home disadvantage. The 20-32 record isn't borderline—it's a clear pattern that suggests either ballpark factors or psychological elements consistently work against Carroll's total bases production in Arizona.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.81 average creates legitimate value against standard 2.5 lines, supported by a +17.5% under ROI across 52 games. Target unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, especially during day games when Chase Field's dimensions play larger. Main risk is Carroll breaking out of his current six-game under streak, but the broader 38.5% over rate suggests this home disadvantage is structural rather than streaky.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Corbin Carroll's Total Bases prop record home games?
Carroll's Total Bases props at home show a clear under bias with a 20-32-0 record (38.5% overs). His 1.81 average sits well below standard lines, creating a -0.7 differential that consistently favors under bets across 52 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Corbin Carroll Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Carroll's Total Bases at home. The data strongly supports unders with +17.5% ROI compared to -26.6% on overs. Target lines set at 2.5 or higher for maximum value in this pitcher-friendly home environment.
What's Corbin Carroll's average Total Bases home games?
Carroll averages 1.81 Total Bases in home games, significantly below the typical 2.46 line. This 0.7-base gap represents substantial value for under bettors, as books haven't fully adjusted for his home ballpark disadvantage.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities come when lines are set at 2.5 or higher at Chase Field. Day games often provide additional value as the ballpark plays even larger. Avoid betting overs given the consistent -26.6% ROI and structural home disadvantages.