Corbin Carroll's home run prop at home presents one of baseball's most reliable under trends, hitting just 6 overs in 51 games (11.8%) with a devastating -77.5% ROI on overs. Currently riding an 8-game under streak with a 29-game under streak earlier this season, Carroll averages 0.14 home runs per home game against typical 0.5+ lines. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Carroll's home run struggles at Chase Field represent a fascinating case study in park factors overwhelming talent. Despite his speed-first profile translating well to other stats at home, his power numbers crater in Arizona's spacious dimensions and inconsistent wind patterns. The 0.14 average against 0.5+ lines creates a massive 0.36+ edge, while the 88.2% under rate suggests this isn't variance but a fundamental mismatch between Carroll's swing plane and Chase Field's characteristics. The 29-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates the trend's persistence, while the current 8-game streak shows it remains intact. Carroll's approach emphasizes contact and speed over launch angle optimization, making him particularly vulnerable in a park that demands elevation for home runs. The -77.5% ROI on overs reflects sharp money consistently hammering unders, yet books continue setting lines that create value. Most concerning for over bettors is Carroll's inability to string together consecutive home run games at home, with his longest over streak maxing at just two games. This suggests even when he connects, it's typically isolated incidents rather than sustained power surges.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Carroll's home power profile creates a systematic edge that transcends normal variance, evidenced by the 88.2% under rate and sustained streaks. The 0.36+ line differential provides exceptional value, while Chase Field's dimensions amplify his contact-over-power approach. Primary risk involves potential line adjustments as books catch up, but current pricing suggests continued value. Target games with typical 0.5+ lines for maximum edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Corbin Carroll's Home Runs prop record home games?
Carroll's home run prop record at home is 6-45-0 over/under (11.8% overs) across 51 games from June 2023 through September 2024, generating a devastating -77.5% ROI on over bets while unders profit +68.5%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Corbin Carroll Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Carroll's home run props at home with high confidence. The 88.2% under rate and 0.36+ line edge create exceptional value, supported by Chase Field's dimensions limiting his contact-oriented power approach.
What's Corbin Carroll's average Home Runs home games?
Carroll averages 0.14 home runs per home game, creating a massive 0.36+ differential against typical 0.5+ lines. This gap represents one of baseball's largest systematic edges between performance and pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Carroll home run unders when lines are 0.5+ and he's facing quality pitching. Avoid after road power surges or against struggling pitchers, as books occasionally overadjust lines downward, reducing value.