Corbin Carroll's home run prop in high total games presents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, going 0-14-0 (0% overs) with a perfect -100% ROI on overs. Carroll averages zero home runs against a 0.57 line in these spots, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Carroll's complete inability to clear his home run prop in high total games represents a fundamental mismatch between market perception and reality. The 0.57 average line suggests books expect him to homer roughly every other high-scoring game, yet Carroll has failed to connect even once across 14 opportunities. This isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance in specific game environments. High total games typically feature favorable hitting conditions like wind, temperature, or weak pitching, yet Carroll's power production disappears precisely when it should flourish. The -0.6 differential between his actual performance and the line indicates significant market inefficiency. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its consistency—no hot streaks, no near-misses that suggest regression, just complete absence of power in games where offense should thrive. The sample size of 14 games provides statistical significance, and the uniform nature of the failures suggests this isn't random distribution. Carroll's speed-first profile may actually work against him in high total environments, where patient approaches and swing changes to capitalize on favorable conditions could disrupt his natural timing and contact patterns.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Carroll's 0-14-0 record in high total games represents market failure to properly price his power limitations in offensive environments. The 0.57 line consistently overestimates his home run probability by significant margins. Ideal conditions are any high total game where the line sits at 0.5 or higher. Main risk is sample size regression, though 14 games of uniform failure suggests systematic rather than random underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Corbin Carroll's Home Runs prop record high total games?
Carroll's home run prop record in high total games is a perfect 0-14-0 under, meaning he has never hit a home run in any of the 14 high-scoring games tracked, creating a 0% over rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Corbin Carroll Home Runs high total games?
Bet under on Carroll's home runs in high total games with high confidence. The 0-14-0 record and -0.6 performance differential create exceptional under value at standard lines of 0.5 or higher.
What's Corbin Carroll's average Home Runs high total games?
Carroll averages exactly 0.0 home runs in high total games compared to his average line of 0.57, creating a massive -0.6 differential that represents significant market mispricing of his power in these situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Carroll home run unders specifically in high total games where the line is 0.5 or higher. These offensive environments paradoxically suppress his power production while books maintain standard pricing expectations.