Corbin Carroll's home hits props present a clear under edge, with only 42.3% overs across 52 games and a concerning -0.2 differential versus the typical 1.17 line. The 22-30 under record generates +10.1% ROI on under bets while overs bleed -19.2%. This is a lean under situation with sustainable value.
Expert Analysis
Carroll's home hitting struggles create a compelling under narrative that transcends typical variance. The 1.0 average against a 1.17 line represents meaningful underperformance, not marginal deviation. Chase Field's dimensions and conditions may not suit Carroll's contact-oriented approach as well as expected, creating a persistent home disadvantage. The -19.2% over ROI indicates the market consistently overvalues his home hitting ability, likely influenced by his speed and leadoff role creating inflated expectations. With 30 unders in 52 games, this isn't a small sample fluke but a established pattern. The recent under streak of one game sits within normal variance, but the longer-term data shows five consecutive unders as his longest cold stretch, suggesting he can sustain extended periods below market expectations. Carroll's profile as a high-contact, low-power hitter makes him vulnerable to defensive positioning and pitcher adjustments at home, where teams have more detailed scouting reports. The consistency of this underperformance across a full season's worth of home games indicates structural factors rather than temporary slumps, making this trend likely to persist.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Carroll's home hitting props offer sustainable value on the under side, backed by a 57.7% under rate and positive ROI over 52 games. The -0.2 line differential suggests consistent market mispricing of his home performance. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 hits, as his 1.0 average provides comfortable cushion. Primary risk involves Carroll adjusting his approach or the market correcting this pricing inefficiency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Corbin Carroll's Hits prop record home games?
Carroll's home hits props show a 22-30 under record (42.3% overs) across 52 games from 2023-2024. He averages 1.0 hits per home game, consistently falling short of the typical 1.17 line, creating a reliable under trend.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Corbin Carroll Hits home games?
Bet under on Carroll's home hits props. The data strongly supports under bets with a 57.7% success rate and +10.1% ROI, while overs lose -19.2%. His 1.0 average versus 1.17 lines provides consistent value.
What's Corbin Carroll's average Hits home games?
Carroll averages exactly 1.0 hits per home game, which falls 0.17 hits below the typical market line of 1.17. This -0.2 differential represents meaningful underperformance and creates consistent under value across his home appearances.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Carroll's home hits unders when lines are set at 1.5 hits, providing maximum cushion given his 1.0 average. Avoid betting after extended under streaks of 4+ games, as regression becomes more likely despite the overall trend.