Corbin Carroll's hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting the over just 35.1% of the time across 97 games with a massive -0.3 differential versus the standard 1.24 line. This 34-63-0 record translates to +24.0% ROI backing unders, making Carroll's hits a reliable fade target.
Expert Analysis
Carroll's hits prop inefficiency stems from books consistently overvaluing his contact ability relative to actual production. The centerfielder averages just 0.9 hits per game against a typical 1.24 line, creating substantial value for under bettors. This isn't a small sample anomaly—97 games represent nearly a full season's worth of data, establishing clear pattern recognition. The -33.1% ROI on overs demonstrates how severely overpriced these lines have been, while the corresponding +24.0% under ROI shows consistent profitability for contrarian bettors. Carroll's approach appears to generate more walks and strikeouts than pure contact, leading to feast-or-famine hit totals that rarely reach inflated book projections. The current streak of one under follows a longer nine-game under streak, suggesting books haven't adequately adjusted their pricing model. Most concerning for over backers is the persistence of this trend—even during Carroll's longest over streak of four games, the overall pattern remained intact. This indicates structural rather than variance-based underperformance versus the line, making it a sustainable betting edge rather than temporary market inefficiency.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Carroll's hits props offer exceptional value with a proven 63.9% win rate and +24.0% ROI over 97 games. The -0.3 differential between his 0.9 average and typical 1.24 line creates consistent opportunities. Primary risk involves potential line adjustments as books recognize the pattern, but current pricing suggests the market hasn't corrected this inefficiency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Corbin Carroll's Hits prop record all games?
Corbin Carroll's hits prop record across all games shows 34 overs and 63 unders in 97 total games, translating to just a 35.1% over rate. This represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Corbin Carroll Hits all games?
Bet under on Corbin Carroll's hits props with high confidence. The 63.9% win rate and +24.0% ROI over 97 games, combined with his 0.9 average versus 1.24 typical line, creates exceptional value for under backers.
What's Corbin Carroll's average Hits all games?
Carroll averages 0.9 hits per game across all situations, creating a substantial -0.3 differential compared to the standard 1.24 hits line. This gap represents the core value proposition for consistent under betting on his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Any game offers value for Carroll hits unders given the persistent -0.3 line differential. Focus on standard 1.24 or higher lines rather than reduced numbers, as books haven't adequately adjusted pricing despite the clear pattern.