Connor Wong presents one of baseball's most reliable under trends, hitting over his home run prop in just 5 of 54 games (9.3% rate). With an average of 0.09 home runs against typical 0.5+ lines and currently riding a 9-game under streak, this represents a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Connor Wong's home run prop represents a fundamental mismatch between perception and reality. His 0.09 home run average reveals a player whose power output is dramatically overestimated by betting markets. The 9.3% over rate isn't an anomaly—it reflects Wong's role as a defensive-minded catcher whose offensive value comes from contact and situational hitting, not power. The 13-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency in his lack of power production. Wong's swing mechanics and approach prioritize making contact over driving the ball, which explains why he's managed just 5 overs across 54 games spanning nearly two seasons. The -82.3% ROI on overs tells the complete story: this isn't variance, it's systematic undervaluation of Wong's true power ceiling. His catching duties likely contribute to fatigue that further limits explosive offensive output. The longest over streak of just 1 game indicates that even when Wong connects well, he rarely sustains power production across multiple games. This trend appears sustainable because it's rooted in Wong's fundamental skill set and role, not temporary slumps or matchup-dependent factors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Wong's 9.3% over rate across 54 games represents one of baseball's most reliable prop trends, driven by his contact-first approach and defensive role limiting power output. The current 9-game under streak aligns perfectly with his season-long pattern. The primary risk is an unusually favorable ballpark or matchup against a struggling pitcher, but even then, Wong's track record suggests the under remains the superior play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Connor Wong's Home Runs prop record all games?
Connor Wong's home run prop record shows 5 overs and 49 unders across 54 games, producing a 9.3% over rate. This translates to a devastating -82.3% ROI on over bets while under bettors enjoyed +73.2% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Connor Wong Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Connor Wong's home run props with high confidence. His 9.3% over rate across 54 games represents one of baseball's most reliable trends, currently supported by a 9-game under streak.
What's Connor Wong's average Home Runs all games?
Connor Wong averages 0.09 home runs per game compared to typical lines around 0.5+, creating a -0.4 differential. This massive gap between production and expectations drives the trend's profitability and sustainability.
How reliable is this trend?
Any game presents value for Wong home run unders given his 9.3% over rate, but focus on road games or matchups against quality pitching where his limited power becomes even more constrained.