Connor Wong has been a brutal fade for over bettors, hitting just 30% in his last 10 games while averaging 1.1 hits against a 1.5 line. The under delivers a robust 33.6% ROI with Wong consistently falling short of expectations. This presents a clear fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Connor Wong's hitting struggles over his last 10 games reveal a player whose production has fallen significantly below market expectations. Averaging just 1.1 hits per game against the standard 1.5 line creates a massive 0.4-hit deficit that translates to consistent value on the under. The 30% over rate tells the story of a hitter who simply isn't making enough contact or finding holes consistently enough to justify the betting market's confidence. Wong's 3-7 over/under record includes a devastating 5-game under streak, suggesting this isn't random variance but a sustained period of offensive inefficiency. The -42.7% ROI on overs represents one of the more lopsided edges we've tracked, while the corresponding 33.6% under ROI demonstrates the market's slow adjustment to Wong's declining production. As a catcher, Wong faces the additional physical demands that can impact offensive performance over extended stretches. Without favorable splits data to identify optimal spots for over plays, the path of least resistance points toward continued struggles at the plate. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to establish a meaningful trend, particularly when the underlying performance gap is this pronounced.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Wong's sustained offensive struggles create a clear market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. The 0.4-hit deficit per game combined with a 70% under rate over 10 games suggests the market remains overly optimistic about his hitting ability. Target this under in all situations until Wong demonstrates meaningful improvement or the line adjusts downward to better reflect his current production level.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Connor Wong's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Connor Wong has gone 3-7 over/under on his hits prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents one of the more lopsided under trends among regular players, with the under cashing in 7 of 10 opportunities.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Connor Wong Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under on Connor Wong's hits props. His 1.1 average against the 1.5 line creates consistent value, with the under producing a 33.6% ROI. The market hasn't properly adjusted to his recent offensive struggles, making this a high-confidence fade.
What's Connor Wong's average Hits last 10 games?
Connor Wong is averaging 1.1 hits per game over his last 10 contests, which falls 0.4 hits short of the standard 1.5 line. This significant gap between production and market expectation creates the foundation for profitable under betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Connor Wong's hits under in all situations until the line adjusts or his production improves. Without favorable splits data, there's no clear spot to avoid. The consistent 0.4-hit deficit suggests this edge persists across different matchups and game situations.