Connor Wong's hits prop has been a goldmine for under bettors at home, going under in 65.2% of games with a +24.5% ROI. The Red Sox catcher averages just 1.17 hits against a typical 1.54 line, creating consistent value on the under across 23 home games.
Expert Analysis
Wong's home hitting struggles stem from his role as Boston's backup catcher, where reduced playing time and inconsistent at-bats create a natural ceiling on his hit totals. His 1.17 hits per game average sits significantly below typical lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limited offensive upside in home environments. The 8-15 over/under record reflects a player whose contact skills don't translate to consistent hit production when facing familiar American League East pitching at Fenway Park. Wong's catching duties often limit his focus at the plate, particularly in day games following night games behind the dish. The -0.4 differential between his average and the line represents genuine market inefficiency, as books appear to price him closer to an everyday player rather than acknowledging his part-time role's impact on offensive consistency. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, though his longest under streak of four games shows the trend can extend significantly. The lack of meaningful hot streaks (longest over streak just three games) suggests Wong's home hitting profile is relatively stable and predictable, making this a sustainable edge rather than variance-driven noise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wong's 65.2% under rate and +24.5% ROI at home creates legitimate value, particularly when lines sit at 1.5 hits or higher. The catcher's backup role and consistent underperformance versus market expectations make this a steady contrarian play. Main risk is small sample size and potential lineup changes that could increase his playing time.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Connor Wong's Hits prop record home games?
Connor Wong's hits prop record in home games stands at 8-15-0 over/under, meaning the under has hit in 15 of 23 games (65.2%). This translates to a +24.5% ROI for consistent under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Connor Wong Hits home games?
Bet the under on Connor Wong's hits props in home games. The 65.2% under rate and +24.5% ROI provide clear value, especially when lines are set at 1.5 hits or higher given his 1.17 average.
What's Connor Wong's average Hits home games?
Connor Wong averages 1.17 hits per game in home contests, which sits 0.37 hits below the typical 1.54 line. This -0.4 differential represents consistent value for under bettors across his 23-game home sample.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Connor Wong's hits under is when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 1.17 average and the number. Day games after night games behind the plate offer additional edge.