Cody Bellinger's total bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 34.5% overs across 58 games with a devastating -0.6 average differential. The Cubs outfielder consistently falls short of inflated lines at Wrigley Field, creating sustained value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Bellinger's home struggles stem from a perfect storm of factors that create persistent under value. His 1.64 average total bases against a typical 2.21 line represents a massive 25.7% gap that oddsmakers have failed to properly adjust. The current six-game under streak is part of a broader pattern, including a brutal 13-game under run that highlights how consistently Bellinger disappoints at Wrigley. This isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by his approach against familiar National League Central pitching and the psychological pressure of performing at home. The -34.2% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overvaluing Bellinger's ceiling while ignoring his floor. With only 20 overs in 58 attempts, we're seeing a player whose home environment actively suppresses his power output. The 25.1% ROI on unders demonstrates that this edge has been exploitable and shows little sign of regression. Bellinger's total bases props at Wrigley have become a reliable fade, particularly when lines exceed 2.0 total bases.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bellinger's home total bases props offer exceptional under value with a 65.5% hit rate and 25.1% ROI. Target unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, as his 1.64 home average creates significant cushion. The primary risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but six consecutive unders suggest the trend remains intact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cody Bellinger's Total Bases prop record home games?
Bellinger's home total bases record stands at 20-38-0 over/under across 58 games, hitting just 34.5% overs. This translates to unders cashing at a 65.5% clip, creating significant value for under bettors at Wrigley Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cody Bellinger Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Bellinger's total bases at home. His 1.64 average against typical 2.21 lines creates a -0.6 differential that has produced 25.1% ROI on unders. Target props set at 2.0 or higher for maximum edge.
What's Cody Bellinger's average Total Bases home games?
Bellinger averages 1.64 total bases in home games compared to the typical 2.21 line, creating a massive -0.6 differential. This 25.7% gap between performance and expectations drives consistent under value at Wrigley Field.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bellinger total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher at Wrigley Field. The current six-game under streak and historical 65.5% under rate make any elevated line an immediate betting opportunity.