Cody Bellinger's home run prop at home games presents one of the most reliable under bets in baseball, hitting just 14.1% overs across 64 games with a crushing -73.2% ROI on overs. His 0.17 average sits 0.33 runs below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Bellinger's home run struggles at Wrigley Field represent a dramatic shift from his peak power years, with his 0.17 per-game average at home revealing a player whose launch angle and exit velocity have fundamentally changed. The 23-game under streak demonstrates this isn't random variance but a structural issue with his swing mechanics and approach against the specific conditions at Wrigley. Chicago's ballpark dimensions and wind patterns have historically suppressed power numbers, but Bellinger's struggles go deeper than park factors alone. His 14.1% over rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished power profile, particularly in home games where he's shown less aggression and pull-side authority. The consistency of this trend across 64 games eliminates small sample concerns, while the current 10-game under streak indicates the pattern remains intact. Bellinger's age-related decline in bat speed and his adjustment to National League pitching after returning from the Dodgers has created a perfect storm for under bettors. The -0.33 differential between his actual performance and the standard line represents genuine market inefficiency, especially when considering his home/road splits show even more pronounced struggles at Wrigley Field.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bellinger's home run prop at Wrigley Field offers exceptional value with a 64.1% ROI on unders and an 85.9% hit rate over 64 games. The ideal conditions are day games with wind blowing in, where his already-diminished power becomes even more suppressed. The primary risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but his underlying metrics suggest this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cody Bellinger's Home Runs prop record home games?
Bellinger's home run prop record at home games is 9-55-0, hitting just 14.1% overs across 64 games. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in baseball, with unders cashing at an 85.9% clip and generating a massive 64.1% ROI for disciplined bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cody Bellinger Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Bellinger's home runs at Wrigley Field with high confidence. His 85.9% under rate and 64.1% ROI over 64 games creates exceptional value, especially with books slow to adjust the line to his diminished power profile at home.
What's Cody Bellinger's average Home Runs home games?
Bellinger averages 0.17 home runs per home game, sitting 0.33 runs below the typical 0.5 line. This substantial gap between performance and market expectation has created consistent value for under bettors throughout the sample period, with no signs of meaningful regression.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Bellinger's home run under is during day games at Wrigley with unfavorable wind conditions. His struggles are most pronounced in these situations, where his reduced power becomes even more suppressed by environmental factors and fatigue.