Cody Bellinger's hits props have been catastrophic for over bettors, hitting just 2 of 10 times (20%) in his last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI. Bellinger is averaging only 0.8 hits against a typical 1.3 line, creating a massive -0.5 differential. The under presents exceptional value.
Expert Analysis
Cody Bellinger's recent hitting struggles represent one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props. His 0.8 hits per game average sits a full half-hit below typical book lines of 1.3, creating consistent value for under bettors who've enjoyed a 52.7% ROI. The trend shows remarkable persistence with five consecutive unders, suggesting this isn't random variance but a fundamental shift in Bellinger's production. Late-season fatigue often impacts veteran hitters, and Bellinger's plate discipline may be deteriorating as pitchers attack him more aggressively. The Cubs' playoff positioning could also influence his approach, potentially leading to more patient at-bats that result in walks rather than hits. Books appear slow to adjust their lines downward, maintaining inflated numbers based on Bellinger's season-long reputation rather than his current form. This creates a systematic edge for sharp bettors willing to fade the former MVP. The trend's strength lies in its consistency - when a player of Bellinger's caliber struggles this dramatically, books often lag in their adjustments, providing sustained value.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bellinger's 20% over rate and -0.5 differential against the line create exceptional under value. The five-game under streak indicates sustained struggles rather than short-term variance. Target this prop when lines remain at 1.5 hits or higher, as books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished production. Main risk is immediate positive regression, but the trend's persistence suggests continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cody Bellinger's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Bellinger has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his hits props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. This represents one of the worst over rates for any regular starter during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cody Bellinger Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under on Bellinger's hits props. His 0.8 average against 1.3+ lines creates consistent value, evidenced by under bettors' 52.7% ROI and five consecutive winning bets on the under.
What's Cody Bellinger's average Hits last 10 games?
Bellinger is averaging 0.8 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.5 hits below the typical 1.3 line. This massive differential explains why under bettors have been profitable at 52.7% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bellinger hits unders when books set lines at 1.5+ hits, as they're slow to adjust to his decline. Late-season games offer the best value as fatigue compounds his struggles.