Cedric Mullins has obliterated Total Bases unders with a devastating 1-9-0 record over his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs while averaging 0.8 total bases against a 3.2 line. This -2.4 differential represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball props, making Mullins unders a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Cedric Mullins has entered a statistical wasteland that defies even pessimistic projections. His 0.8 total bases average represents a catastrophic 75% shortfall from the typical 3.2 line, suggesting either severe injury concerns, mechanical breakdown, or fundamental role changes within Baltimore's lineup. The 90% under rate across 10 games eliminates sample size concerns—this isn't variance, it's systematic underperformance. Most telling is the seven-game under streak that dominated the sample, indicating sustained struggles rather than isolated cold spells. The -80.9% ROI on overs speaks to books being slow to adjust lines downward, creating persistent value on unders. However, regression concerns loom large as Mullins historically profiles as a multi-category contributor capable of doubles and stolen bases. The complete absence of extra-base production suggests either hidden injury or approaching season-end rest considerations. Books will eventually crater his lines, potentially eliminating the edge, but current pricing appears to assume mean reversion that hasn't materialized. The consistency of this underperformance across different opponents and situations strengthens the case that something fundamental has shifted in Mullins's approach or physical condition, making continued under results more likely than random distribution would suggest.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Cedric Mullins's total bases props represent a rare statistical anomaly where the data overwhelmingly supports one side. The 90% under rate combined with a massive -2.4 average differential creates exceptional value that hasn't been properly priced out. Target unders aggressively until books adjust lines below 2.5 total bases. Primary risk is sudden lineup changes or rest days, but the underlying performance trend appears sustainable through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Mullins's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Cedric Mullins has gone 1-9-0 on Total Bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of over bets. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in recent baseball history, with unders cashing at a 90% clip.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Mullins Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Cedric Mullins Total Bases props with high confidence. The 90% under rate and -2.4 average differential create exceptional value that books haven't properly adjusted for. Target any line above 2.0 total bases aggressively.
What's Cedric Mullins's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Cedric Mullins is averaging just 0.8 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 3.2. This -2.4 differential represents a 75% shortfall, indicating severe underperformance that creates massive under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cedric Mullins Total Bases unders when lines remain above 2.5, particularly against quality pitching or in road games. Avoid when books finally adjust lines below 2.0, as the edge will be eliminated through proper pricing.