Cedric Mullins has been a home run desert at Camden Yards, hitting the over just 8.0% of the time (4-46-0 record) with a devastating -0.4 differential versus the typical 0.5 line. Currently riding 17 straight unders, this represents one of the most reliable fade opportunities in baseball.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Cedric Mullins's power struggles at home. Averaging just 0.08 home runs per game against the standard 0.5 line creates a massive -0.4 differential that has generated +75.6% ROI for under bettors. This isn't variance - it's a fundamental shift in Mullins's profile. The 2021 breakout season that saw him launch 30 home runs feels like ancient history, as his current home power output suggests a player whose swing has been compromised by either mechanical issues or approach changes. The 17-game under streak, with his longest over streak maxing at just two games, indicates this isn't a temporary slump but a new reality. Camden Yards typically plays neutral for home runs, so ballpark factors aren't suppressing his power. The consistency of this trend across 50 games spanning multiple seasons suggests oddsmakers have been slow to adjust, creating persistent value. However, regression remains possible if Mullins rediscovers his swing mechanics or if the Orioles make lineup adjustments that put him in better counting situations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Cedric Mullins's home run prop represents one of the most reliable fade opportunities in baseball, with an 8.0% over rate creating massive value on unders. The -0.4 differential shows oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished power output at Camden Yards. Ideal conditions exist when the line sits at 0.5, which has been standard. The main risk is a mechanical adjustment suddenly clicking, but 50 games of data suggests this is his new baseline rather than an extended slump.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Mullins's Home Runs prop record home games?
Cedric Mullins has gone 4-46-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 8.0% of overs. He's averaging 0.08 home runs per home game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential that has been incredibly consistent.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Mullins Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Mullins's 92% under rate at home represents one of baseball's most reliable fade opportunities. The 0.08 average versus 0.5 line creates sustainable value, especially during his current 17-game under streak.
What's Cedric Mullins's average Home Runs home games?
Cedric Mullins averages 0.08 home runs per home game, significantly below the standard 0.5 line. This -0.4 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and betting expectations in baseball, creating consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Mullins home run unders when the line is 0.5 at Camden Yards, which has been standard. Avoid when the line drops to 0.5- or lower, as that reduces value. Day games and favorable matchups don't significantly impact his home power output.