Cedric Mullins has been ice cold at the plate, hitting the over on just 30.0% of his hits props over the last 10 games with a brutal -0.5 differential from his typical line. The under has delivered consistent value with a +33.6% ROI, making it the clear preferred side.
Expert Analysis
Cedric Mullins's hitting struggles over this 10-game stretch represent a significant departure from his established baseline, averaging just 0.9 hits per game against a 1.4 line that suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his current form. This -0.5 differential is substantial in hits props, where margins are razor-thin and even small deviations create exploitable edges. The 30.0% over rate indicates systematic underperformance rather than random variance, particularly concerning given the sample size spans two weeks of action. Mullins's recent cold streak includes a devastating four-game under run, suggesting mechanical issues or external factors affecting his timing and approach. The 70.0% under rate with strong ROI indicates the market has been slow to recognize the depth of his struggles, creating a window where the under consistently offers value. While regression toward his seasonal mean is inevitable, the persistence of this trend through 10 games suggests the underlying issues may take time to resolve. The fact that he's managed just one over in his last attempt shows even temporary hot streaks haven't materialized into sustained improvement.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Mullins's -0.5 differential from his line represents a massive edge in hits props, where even small deviations create significant value. The 70.0% under rate with +33.6% ROI shows consistent profitability that outweighs regression concerns. Target this when his line remains at 1.5 hits, as books appear slow to adjust to his current form. Main risk is immediate breakout performance, but the trend's persistence suggests continued value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Mullins's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Mullins has gone 3-7-0 over/under on his hits props in the last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% overs. He's averaging 0.9 hits per game, falling short of his typical 1.4 line by half a hit consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Mullins Hits last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Mullins's hits props. His -0.5 differential from the line and 70.0% under rate with +33.6% ROI create a high-confidence edge that should continue until books adjust their pricing.
What's Cedric Mullins's average Hits last 10 games?
Mullins is averaging 0.9 hits per game over his last 10 contests, significantly below his typical 1.4 line. This -0.5 differential represents a substantial edge in hits props where margins are typically razor-thin.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mullins hits unders when his line remains at 1.5 hits or higher, as books appear slow to adjust. Avoid when facing soft pitching matchups or in hitter-friendly ballparks where variance increases significantly.