Ceddanne Rafaela's home run props present one of the most lopsided trends in recent memory, going under in 9 of 10 games with a devastating -80.9% ROI on overs. The Red Sox utility player has averaged just 0.1 home runs against 0.5 lines, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Rafaela's power production during this stretch. His 0.1 home run average represents a massive -0.4 differential from typical 0.5 lines, suggesting either the market hasn't adjusted or there are fundamental issues with his swing mechanics. The 8-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained power outage. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—Rafaela managed just one home run across 10 games, a rate that would project to roughly 16 home runs over a full season for a player getting regular at-bats. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's slow adjustment to his diminished power output. This could stem from several factors: late-season fatigue affecting his bat speed, opposing pitchers exploiting a mechanical flaw, or simply a natural cold streak that books haven't fully priced in. The lack of any meaningful over streaks (longest is just 1 game) suggests this isn't a player prone to sudden power surges. For a utility player who relies more on contact and speed than raw power, these numbers align with his skill set, making continued under performance the most likely outcome.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Rafaela's sustained power drought isn't a fluke—it's a reflection of his true skill level that the market hasn't fully absorbed. The 90% under rate with nearly 72% ROI creates exceptional value, especially given his role as a contact-first utility player. Target unders when lines remain at 0.5, as his 0.1 average provides massive cushion for profit.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ceddanne Rafaela's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Rafaela went 1-9-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once while going under nine times. This represents a 10% over rate with an average of 0.1 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ceddanne Rafaela Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Rafaela's 90% under rate and 71.8% ROI on unders creates exceptional value. His 0.1 home run average provides massive cushion against 0.5 lines, making unders the clear profitable play.
What's Ceddanne Rafaela's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Rafaela averaged 0.1 home runs over his last 10 games, creating a -0.4 differential against standard 0.5 lines. This represents just one home run total across the entire 10-game sample, well below market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rafaela home run unders when lines remain at 0.5, especially during his current eight-game under streak. His contact-first approach and sustained power drought make unders profitable in most game situations and matchups.