Casey Schmitt's total bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with a 31.6% over rate across 19 games and a brutal -39.7% ROI on overs. The Giants shortstop averages just 1.84 total bases against a 2.29 line, creating a -0.5 differential that favors the under consistently.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose production consistently falls short of market expectations. Schmitt's 1.84 average total bases against a 2.29 line represents a significant 19.7% gap that has persisted across nearly two dozen games. This isn't variance—it's structural underperformance. The Giants shortstop's 6-13 over/under record translates to hitting the over just once every three attempts, while the current four-game under streak suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his offensive limitations. The -39.7% ROI on overs indicates bettors who chase the over are getting demolished, while under backers enjoy a healthy 30.6% return. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency—Schmitt rarely explodes for big games that would skew the average upward. His offensive profile suggests a contact-oriented approach without the power or speed to generate multiple bases regularly. The sample size of 19 games provides sufficient data to establish a pattern, and the lack of dramatic splits suggests this underperformance isn't situational but fundamental to his current skill level.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.5 differential and 31.6% over rate create a mathematical edge that's hard to ignore, especially with the current four-game under streak suggesting continued struggles. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as Schmitt's contact-heavy approach rarely generates explosive offensive output. The main risk is a breakout performance that could signal offensive development, but his track record suggests betting the under remains the sharper play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Casey Schmitt's Total Bases prop record all games?
Casey Schmitt's total bases prop record stands at 6-13-0 over/under across 19 games, translating to just a 31.6% over rate. This means the over hits roughly once every three games, while unders cash at a 68.4% clip, demonstrating consistent underperformance against the betting line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Casey Schmitt Total Bases all games?
Bet the under on Casey Schmitt's total bases props. His 1.84 average against a 2.29 line creates a -0.5 differential favoring unders, supported by a 68.4% under rate and +30.6% ROI. The current four-game under streak reinforces this trend's persistence.
What's Casey Schmitt's average Total Bases all games?
Casey Schmitt averages 1.84 total bases per game across his 19-game sample. This falls significantly short of the typical 2.29 betting line, creating a -0.45 differential that consistently favors under bettors. His production rarely matches market expectations for total bases output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Casey Schmitt total bases unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the value gap. His contact-oriented approach without significant power makes him unlikely to generate explosive multi-base performances, especially during current cold streaks when confidence appears shaken.