Casey Schmitt's hits props present a compelling under opportunity with just 31.6% overs across 19 games. His 0.89 average sits 0.24 hits below the typical 1.13 line, generating +30.6% ROI on unders. This represents a clear systematic edge worth exploiting.
Expert Analysis
Schmitt's hitting struggles reflect the harsh reality of a utility infielder thrust into regular duty. His 0.89 hits per game average reveals a player consistently overvalued by oddsmakers who set lines around 1.13. The 68.4% under rate isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by Schmitt's limited offensive profile. As a defense-first player, Schmitt lacks the consistent contact skills needed to regularly exceed inflated hit totals. His five-game under streak represents his longest cold spell, but even his brief hot stretches rarely sustain above-average hit production. The Giants' offensive struggles compound this issue, as fewer baserunners and scoring opportunities limit Schmitt's at-bat quality. Sportsbooks appear slow to adjust, continuing to price Schmitt like a more established hitter rather than the replacement-level bat he's proven to be. This creates persistent value on the under, particularly when books fail to account for his true talent level. The sample size of 19 games provides sufficient data to identify this edge, and Schmitt's limited ceiling suggests the trend should continue barring significant mechanical changes to his approach.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Schmitt's 68.4% under rate and -0.24 average differential create systematic value, especially when lines exceed 1.0 hits. Target games where books price him around his typical 1.13 line, as his true talent sits closer to 0.9 hits per game. Main risk is small sample variance and potential lineup changes affecting his playing time and at-bat opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Casey Schmitt's Hits prop record all games?
Casey Schmitt's hits prop record stands at 6-13-0 over/under across 19 games, hitting the over just 31.6% of the time. This translates to a -39.7% ROI on overs and +30.6% ROI on unders, showing clear systematic value betting the under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Casey Schmitt Hits all games?
Bet under on Casey Schmitt's hits props. His 68.4% under rate and 0.89 average versus 1.13 typical lines create consistent value. The data shows systematic underperformance rather than temporary variance, making unders the profitable long-term play.
What's Casey Schmitt's average Hits all games?
Casey Schmitt averages 0.89 hits per game across his 19-game sample. This sits 0.24 hits below the typical 1.13 line set by sportsbooks, creating a meaningful edge for under bettors who recognize this systematic mispricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Casey Schmitt hits unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, particularly around the typical 1.13 mark. His defense-first profile and limited offensive ceiling make these inflated totals profitable fade opportunities, especially during Giants' offensive struggles.