Cal Raleigh's home run production at T-Mobile Park presents one of the most reliable under opportunities in baseball, with just 4 overs in 44 home games (9.1% over rate). His 0.09 average sits dramatically below typical 0.52 lines, generating exceptional -82.6% ROI on overs versus +73.5% on unders. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Cal Raleigh's home run struggles at T-Mobile Park represent a perfect storm of ballpark suppression and individual tendencies. T-Mobile Park ranks among the most pitcher-friendly environments for home runs, with its expansive foul territory and marine layer effects that knock down fly balls. Raleigh's 0.09 home run average represents less than one homer every eleven games, a rate so consistently low it suggests fundamental mechanical or approach issues at home rather than random variance. The 14-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency in this suppression. His power stroke appears better suited to road environments, where different dimensions and atmospheric conditions may play more favorably. The -0.43 differential between his actual production and typical betting lines indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this extreme home/road split. With oddsmakers still setting lines around 0.5 home runs, they're essentially pricing Raleigh as a league-average power threat at home when the data screams otherwise. This isn't a small sample aberration spanning just one season - the trend encompasses meaningful data across multiple months, suggesting a persistent pattern rather than temporary slump.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 9.1% over rate and massive line differential create clear value on unders, but the extreme nature of this trend raises slight regression concerns. Target games where Raleigh faces quality pitching or when wind conditions favor pitchers at T-Mobile Park. The primary risk is a sudden power surge that could quickly erode the edge, though his consistent struggles suggest this pattern should persist through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cal Raleigh's Home Runs prop record home games?
Cal Raleigh has gone 4-40-0 over/under on home run props in home games, hitting just 9.1% overs across 44 games. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with unders cashing at a 90.9% rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cal Raleigh Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Cal Raleigh's home run props at T-Mobile Park. His 0.09 average versus typical 0.52 lines creates massive value on unders, supported by 73.5% ROI and consistent ballpark suppression effects.
What's Cal Raleigh's average Home Runs home games?
Cal Raleigh averages just 0.09 home runs per game at T-Mobile Park, compared to typical betting lines around 0.52. This -0.43 differential represents one of the largest gaps between production and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cal Raleigh under props when he faces quality starting pitching at T-Mobile Park or during day games when marine layer effects are strongest. Avoid betting after road power surges that might inflate his lines.