Cal Raleigh's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going 7-3 to the under over his last 10 games with a brutal 30% over rate. His 0.9 average sits a full half-hit below the typical 1.4 line, generating a robust 33.6% ROI on unders. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Cal Raleigh's recent hitting struggles represent a clear departure from his season-long production, creating a profitable betting opportunity that books haven't fully adjusted to. The Mariners catcher is averaging just 0.9 hits per game over this 10-game sample, falling short of the standard 1.5 hits line in 70% of his appearances. This isn't just bad luck—Raleigh's contact quality and approach appear compromised during this stretch. The persistence of this trend is notable, with his longest under streak reaching four games and only managing single-game over streaks. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance; he's not alternating good and bad games, but rather showing sustained offensive struggles. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating his current hitting ability based on past performance. September typically sees fatigue set in for catchers, and Raleigh's workload behind the plate likely contributes to his diminished offensive output. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify a legitimate trend rather than random variance, especially given the consistency of the underperformance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Raleigh's sustained hitting struggles over this 10-game stretch create clear value on under bets, particularly when the line sits at 1.5 hits. The 70% under rate combined with his 0.9 average suggests books are slow to adjust to his current form. Target unders when facing quality pitching or in day games after night games, but avoid when he's facing struggling left-handed pitching where his splits historically improve.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cal Raleigh's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Cal Raleigh has gone 3-7 over/under on his hits props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He's averaging 0.9 hits per game during this stretch, well below typical lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cal Raleigh Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under on Cal Raleigh's hits props. His 70% under rate and 0.9 average create clear value, especially at standard 1.5 hit lines. The trend shows consistency rather than random variance.
What's Cal Raleigh's average Hits last 10 games?
Cal Raleigh is averaging 0.9 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.5 hits below the typical 1.4 line. This significant gap represents the core value in betting his unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cal Raleigh hit unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in day games following night games. Avoid betting when he faces struggling left-handed pitching where his career splits show improvement.