Byron Buxton's Total Bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, with overs hitting just 42.9% of the time across 35 games. His 2.03 average falls short of typical 2.07 lines, generating a profitable -18.2% ROI on overs versus +9.1% on unders.
Expert Analysis
Byron Buxton's home Total Bases performance reveals a systematic underperformance that creates consistent betting value. The centerfielder's 2.03 average at Target Field falls 0.04 bases below standard lines, which might seem marginal but translates to meaningful edge over large samples. This gap suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for Buxton's home environment factors. The 42.9% over rate across 35 games indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Target Field's dimensions and atmospheric conditions may suppress Buxton's power output, or perhaps the familiar surroundings create pressing situations where he's less selective. The -18.2% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently this trend punishes over bettors, while under backers enjoy solid +9.1% returns. With Buxton's injury history and tendency toward streaky performance, his home environment appears to moderate his explosive potential. The current single-game under streak aligns with broader patterns, though his four-game over streak shows he can still deliver bursts of production. This data spans over a year, providing sufficient sample size to trust the underlying trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Byron Buxton's home Total Bases props offer consistent under value based on his 2.03 average versus typical 2.07 lines. The 57.1% under rate and positive ROI create a sustainable edge, particularly when lines sit at 2.0 or higher. Main risk involves Buxton's explosive upside during hot streaks, but Target Field conditions appear to consistently moderate his power output.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Byron Buxton props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Byron Buxton's Total Bases prop record home games?
Byron Buxton's Total Bases prop record at home games stands at 15-20-0 over/under, meaning overs hit just 42.9% of the time across 35 games. This represents a clear pattern favoring under bets with consistent frequency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Byron Buxton Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Byron Buxton's Total Bases props at home games. The data shows a 57.1% under rate with positive 9.1% ROI, while overs lose money at -18.2% ROI. His 2.03 average consistently falls short of typical lines.
What's Byron Buxton's average Total Bases home games?
Byron Buxton averages 2.03 Total Bases in home games, which falls 0.04 bases below the typical 2.07 prop line. This seemingly small gap creates consistent value for under bettors across his 35-game sample at Target Field.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Byron Buxton's Total Bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher at Target Field. His home environment consistently suppresses production below market expectations, creating the most value when oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted downward.