Byron Buxton's total bases props away from home present a clear fade opportunity, hitting over just 31.0% of the time across 29 games with a brutal -0.5 differential versus the typical line. Currently riding four straight unders with an eight-game under streak earlier this season, backing the under shows strong +31.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Buxton's road struggles with total bases props. His 1.55 average sits meaningfully below the typical 2.09 line, creating consistent value on the under. This isn't just bad luck - it represents a fundamental shift in Buxton's offensive profile away from Target Field. The center fielder's power numbers have declined significantly on the road, likely due to varying ballpark dimensions and pitcher quality he faces in opposing venues. His current four-game under streak follows an earlier eight-game under run, suggesting this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. The -40.8% ROI on overs tells the story of inflated lines that haven't adjusted to Buxton's road reality. While his speed can occasionally manufacture extra bases, the consistent failure to reach these totals indicates books are pricing in his peak power years rather than current production. The 69% under rate across nearly 30 games provides substantial sample size confidence, especially when combined with the clear average-to-line discrepancy that shows no signs of correcting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 69% under rate and +31.7% ROI create legitimate value, but limited recent data prevents higher conviction. Target this prop when Buxton faces quality road pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. The main risk is positive regression if his power stroke returns, but the persistent underperformance suggests books haven't properly adjusted to his current road profile.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Byron Buxton's Total Bases prop record away games?
Buxton's total bases record in away games stands at 9-20-0 over/under, hitting the over just 31.0% of the time across 29 games. This represents a significant underperformance with nearly 70% of his road props finishing under the posted line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Byron Buxton Total Bases away games?
Bet the under on Buxton's total bases in away games. The 69% under rate and +31.7% ROI provide clear value, especially given his 1.55 average versus typical 2.09 lines. Focus on games against quality pitching for maximum edge.
What's Byron Buxton's average Total Bases away games?
Buxton averages 1.55 total bases in away games, sitting 0.5 bases below the typical 2.09 line. This half-base gap creates consistent value on the under, as books appear to be pricing his props based on outdated power expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Buxton's total bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching on the road or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Avoid betting after extended time off when small samples might skew recent performance, and monitor for any lineup position changes that could affect his opportunities.