Byron Buxton's total bases prop shows a decisive under trend with just 37.5% overs across 64 games. His 1.81 average sits 0.3 bases below the typical 2.08 line, generating +19.3% ROI on unders. This represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Buxton's total bases struggles stem from his all-or-nothing offensive profile that books haven't properly adjusted for. While his power potential creates inflated lines, his .240 career average and strikeout tendencies limit consistent base accumulation. The -0.3 differential between his actual performance (1.81) and typical line (2.08) reveals consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers who price in his ceiling rather than his floor. His recent seven-game under streak exemplifies this pattern - when Buxton isn't launching home runs, he's often collecting single bases or striking out entirely. The 37.5% over rate across 64 games represents a large enough sample to trust, especially given the consistency of his approach. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward despite mounting evidence. His injury history also creates additional downside risk that lines don't fully capture, as even minor ailments can sap the bat speed necessary for his power game. The +19.3% under ROI demonstrates clear market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Buxton's 1.81 average consistently trails his 2.08 line, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. The 37.5% over rate across 64 games shows books overvalue his power ceiling while underestimating his strikeout floor. Target this prop when lines sit at 2.0 or higher. Main risk is a hot streak where his power surge inflates totals quickly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Byron Buxton's Total Bases prop record all games?
Buxton holds a 24-40-0 record on total bases props across all games, hitting the over just 37.5% of the time. His 1.81 average significantly trails the typical 2.08 line, creating a -0.3 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Byron Buxton Total Bases all games?
Bet the under on Buxton's total bases props. His 37.5% over rate and +19.3% under ROI across 64 games show clear value on the under side. Target lines at 2.0 or higher for maximum edge in this systematic market inefficiency.
What's Byron Buxton's average Total Bases all games?
Buxton averages 1.81 total bases per game across all situations, which sits 0.3 bases below his typical 2.08 line. This consistent gap between performance and expectation creates the foundation for profitable under betting over the long term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Buxton's total bases unders when lines reach 2.0 or higher, especially during cold streaks. His all-or-nothing profile means books often overprice his ceiling. Avoid during hot streaks when his power surge can quickly inflate totals beyond sustainable levels.