Bryson Stott has been a consistent under performer on his Total Bases props, hitting under in 70% of his last 10 games with a brutal -0.8 differential versus the line. The Phillies second baseman is averaging just 1.9 total bases against a typical 2.7 line, creating strong under value.
Expert Analysis
Bryson Stott's Total Bases struggles reflect a broader offensive regression that has plagued the Phillies infielder throughout this sample. His 1.9 average against a 2.7 line represents a significant 30% shortfall, suggesting either the market is slow to adjust or Stott is experiencing legitimate contact quality issues. The 70% under rate with a +33.6% ROI on under bets indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained pattern of underperformance. Stott's current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long trend of failing to reach the power numbers that inflate Total Bases props. The lack of multi-hit games or extra-base power has kept him consistently below market expectations. While regression toward his career norms is always possible, the consistency of this underperformance suggests either a mechanical issue or opposing teams successfully exploiting weaknesses in his approach. The market appears to be pricing Stott based on his ceiling rather than his recent floor, creating ongoing value on the under. Without significant changes to his contact quality or the Phillies offensive environment, this trend shows strong persistence indicators through the remainder of the season.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Stott's consistent failure to reach his Total Bases line, evidenced by the -0.8 differential and 70% under rate, creates clear value betting the under. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as Stott has struggled to consistently reach multi-base production. The main risk is natural regression, but his sustained contact quality issues suggest this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryson Stott's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Stott has gone under his Total Bases prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% under rate) with a 3-7-0 record. He's averaging 1.9 total bases against lines typically set around 2.7, creating a significant -0.8 differential that has produced +33.6% ROI on under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryson Stott Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Stott's Total Bases props with medium confidence. His 70% under rate and -0.8 differential versus the line create clear value, especially when lines are set at 2.5 or higher. His contact quality issues suggest this trend has staying power.
What's Bryson Stott's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Stott is averaging just 1.9 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.7. This -0.8 differential represents a 30% shortfall, indicating either market inefficiency or sustained offensive struggles that create consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stott's Total Bases under when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, particularly in games where he's facing quality pitching. His contact quality issues and lack of extra-base consistency make higher lines especially vulnerable to under results.