Bryson Stott has delivered one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, hitting the home run under in 9 of 10 games (90%) with an average of just 0.1 homers per game against typical 0.5 lines. This represents a massive -0.4 differential that has generated +71.8% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Stott's power outage over this 10-game stretch reflects a fundamental shift in his offensive approach and likely mechanical adjustments. Averaging just 0.1 home runs per game against standard 0.5 lines creates a staggering 0.4 differential that's unsustainable long-term but exploitable short-term. The 90% under rate suggests either a significant swing change, injury management, or deliberate contact-over-power approach that's persisted through different matchups and ballparks. The current 6-game under streak within this sample indicates the trend has momentum rather than being front-loaded. Most concerning for over bettors is that Stott managed just one home run across 10 games despite facing varied pitching quality and park factors. This level of power suppression typically stems from mechanical issues, approach changes, or underlying physical limitations. The -80.9% ROI on overs demonstrates how dramatically the market has mispriced his current power output. While regression toward career norms is inevitable, the consistency of this trend across different game situations suggests the underlying factors driving it remain in place.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Stott's complete power drought has created a massive market inefficiency that shows no signs of immediate correction. The 0.4 negative differential against standard lines is extreme enough to overcome typical regression concerns. Target unders in any matchup until his swing mechanics or approach show clear signs of change, with particular value against right-handed pitching where his power has historically been weakest.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Bryson Stott props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryson Stott's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Stott has gone under his home run prop in 9 of his last 10 games (90% under rate) with a 1-9-0 record. He's averaging just 0.1 home runs per game during this stretch, creating a massive -0.4 differential against typical 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryson Stott Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Stott's complete power drought has created a 0.4 negative differential that's generated +71.8% ROI on unders. The trend shows no signs of correction and represents significant market mispricing.
What's Bryson Stott's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Stott is averaging just 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, compared to typical 0.5 lines. This creates a massive -0.4 differential that represents one of the most extreme power droughts in recent baseball.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stott home run unders in any matchup until his approach changes. Focus on games against right-handed pitching where his power has been historically weaker, and avoid when books adjust lines below 0.5 to account for the trend.