Bryce Johnson's hits prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, going 1-9 against the number over his last 10 games with just a 10.0% over rate. Johnson is averaging 0.8 hits against a typical 1.8 line, creating a massive -1.0 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's catastrophic 1-9 over record represents one of the most lopsided trends you'll find in baseball props, and the underlying numbers suggest this isn't just variance. Averaging 0.8 hits against an 1.8 line creates a staggering one-hit deficit that indicates either the market hasn't adjusted to Johnson's current form or he's experiencing a fundamental offensive regression. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates how profitable this fade has been, while the -80.9% over ROI shows the carnage on the other side. Johnson's current six-game under streak, part of a broader pattern where he's managed just one over in 10 attempts, suggests either a mechanical issue, poor matchup luck, or a role change limiting his opportunities. The fact that his longest over streak in this sample is just one game indicates this isn't a hot-cold pattern but sustained underperformance. While regression is always possible in small samples, Johnson's extreme underperformance relative to market expectations creates a clear edge for under bettors until the market corrects or his performance rebounds.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Johnson's 1-9 record and -1.0 average differential create a clear mathematical edge, but the extreme nature of this trend raises regression concerns. The ideal play is continuing to fade Johnson's hits props until either the market adjusts the line downward or he shows sustained improvement. Main risk is natural regression to his career norms, but the current edge remains too strong to ignore.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Johnson's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Johnson has gone 1-9 on his hits over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once while going under nine times. This represents a brutal 10% over rate that's been devastating for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Johnson Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Johnson's hits props. His 1-9 record, 0.8 average against 1.8 lines, and 71.8% under ROI create a clear mathematical edge that outweighs regression concerns in the short term.
What's Bryce Johnson's average Hits last 10 games?
Johnson is averaging 0.8 hits per game over his last 10 contests. This creates a massive -1.0 differential against the typical 1.8 hits line, indicating severe underperformance relative to market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Johnson hits unders when lines remain at 1.5 or higher. The edge diminishes if books adjust to 1.5 or lower, but current market pricing hasn't caught up to his poor form.