Bryce Harper's home run prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, going 1-9-0 with just a 10.0% over rate in his last 10 games. Averaging only 0.1 home runs against typical 0.5 lines, Harper has delivered a crushing -80.9% ROI for over bettors while rewarding under backers with +71.8% returns.
Expert Analysis
This trend reveals a fundamental shift in Harper's offensive profile during the sample period from August through September. The 0.1 home run average against 0.5 lines represents a massive -0.4 differential that screams systemic change rather than random variance. Harper's power surge that made him a perennial 30+ home run threat appears to have stalled completely, with only one game featuring a home run across 10 contests. The eight-game under streak within this sample suggests either a mechanical issue, injury concern, or opposing teams successfully neutralizing his power with strategic pitching approaches. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—this isn't a case of Harper hitting line drives that happened to stay in the park. The underlying contact quality and launch angle data would be crucial here, but the raw results paint a picture of a hitter who simply isn't elevating the ball with authority. The timing coincides with late-season fatigue and potential nagging injuries that often plague veteran players. However, regression remains a constant threat with a player of Harper's caliber, as his career .281 ISO and proven track record suggest this power drought shouldn't persist indefinitely.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Harper's complete power outage over this 10-game stretch, combined with the -0.4 line differential and 90% under rate, creates exceptional value on the under side. The trend shows remarkable consistency with an eight-game under streak embedded within the sample. Primary risk is Harper's elite pedigree and potential for explosive regression, but the data overwhelmingly supports continued under betting until the trend breaks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Harper's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Bryce Harper went 1-9-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs. He managed only one home run total across all 10 games, creating an extreme under-heavy record that devastated over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Harper Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Harper's home runs with high confidence. His 90% under rate and -0.4 differential from typical lines creates exceptional value. The trend shows remarkable consistency with an embedded eight-game under streak.
What's Bryce Harper's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Harper averaged just 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.4 short of typical 0.5 lines. This represents a massive power drought for a player who built his reputation on consistent home run production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harper home run unders during late-season stretches when fatigue peaks and opposing teams have extensive scouting reports. The August-September timeframe of this sample aligns perfectly with when veteran power typically declines most dramatically.