Bryan Reynolds has been a consistent under performer on Total Bases props at home, hitting just 37.0% overs across 46 games with a brutal -29.4% ROI for over bettors. The Pirates outfielder averages 1.91 total bases against a typical 2.24 line, creating a clear 0.33 differential favoring unders.
Expert Analysis
Reynolds's home struggles represent a legitimate market inefficiency rather than random variance. The 37.0% over rate across 46 games provides substantial sample size, while the -0.33 differential between his 1.91 average and the 2.24 line suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his home park limitations. PNC Park's dimensions and conditions appear to suppress Reynolds's extra-base hit production, as evidenced by his consistent failure to reach inflated total bases lines. The current four-game under streak aligns with his broader home pattern, where he's posted an eight-game under streak as his longest dry spell. This isn't a case of a hot hitter cooling off - it's systematic underperformance in a specific environment. The 20.4% ROI on unders demonstrates clear value, particularly when Reynolds faces quality pitching that can limit his power output. His home park factors seem to create a persistent edge that the market hasn't fully recognized, making this trend likely to continue rather than regress to league averages.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Reynolds's home total bases props offer clear value based on his 1.91 average against typical 2.24 lines, creating a sustainable 0.33 edge. The 37.0% over rate and 20.4% under ROI across 46 games represent genuine market inefficiency rather than small sample noise. Target unders when facing above-average pitching or when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, but avoid during hot offensive stretches.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryan Reynolds's Total Bases prop record home games?
Reynolds is 17-29 on Total Bases overs in home games, hitting just 37.0% with a devastating -29.4% ROI for over bettors across 46 games from May 2023 through September 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryan Reynolds Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Reynolds's Total Bases props at home. His 1.91 average against typical 2.24 lines creates clear value, supported by 20.4% under ROI and consistent home park suppression factors.
What's Bryan Reynolds's average Total Bases home games?
Reynolds averages 1.91 total bases in home games compared to the typical 2.24 line, creating a significant -0.33 differential that consistently favors under bettors in this specific environment.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Reynolds Total Bases unders at home when the line is 2.0 or higher and he faces quality pitching. Avoid during hot offensive streaks, but the home park edge remains consistent.