Bryan Reynolds has been a consistent under performer in away Total Bases props, hitting the over just 32.5% of the time with a brutal -0.7 differential from the typical 2.7 line. The under has delivered a strong 28.9% ROI across 40 games, making this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Reynolds' road struggles with Total Bases props stem from a fundamental disconnect between his actual production and market expectations. Averaging just 2.02 total bases per away game against a standard 2.7 line creates a massive 0.68 gap that bettors can exploit. This isn't a small sample fluke—40 games provides substantial evidence of a persistent pattern. The 13-27 over/under record translates to hitting the under 67.5% of the time, well above the 52.4% needed to profit at standard -110 odds. Reynolds appears to face additional challenges on the road that limit his extra-base hit production, whether from unfamiliar ballparks, travel fatigue, or simply tougher pitching matchups away from Pittsburgh. The longest under streak of 8 games demonstrates how sustained these cold spells can be, while the maximum over streak of just 2 games shows limited upside momentum. Most telling is the -38% ROI on overs versus the +28.9% return on unders, indicating the market consistently overvalues Reynolds' road power potential. This trend has persistence written all over it, as the underlying factors limiting his away performance aren't easily correctable mid-season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Reynolds' 32.5% over rate and -0.7 differential from the line create a clear mathematical edge for under bettors. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Main risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but the 40-game sample suggests this is Reynolds' true road baseline rather than extended bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryan Reynolds's Total Bases prop record away games?
Reynolds has gone 13-27-0 on Total Bases overs in away games, hitting just 32.5% of overs across 40 games from June 2023 to September 2024. This represents a significant under bias with the under cashing 67.5% of the time.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryan Reynolds Total Bases away games?
Bet the under on Reynolds' Total Bases in away games. The 32.5% over rate and -0.7 differential from the typical 2.7 line create a clear mathematical edge, with unders producing a 28.9% ROI over 40 games.
What's Bryan Reynolds's average Total Bases away games?
Reynolds averages 2.02 total bases in away games, significantly below the typical 2.7 line. This -0.68 differential represents substantial value for under bettors, as he consistently falls short of market expectations on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Reynolds Total Bases unders when the line is 2.5 or higher in away games, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Avoid during hot streaks, but his road struggles have shown remarkable consistency across different opponents and situations.