Brooks Baldwin's total bases production has cratered over his last 10 games, going under the line in 60% of contests with a brutal -1.0 differential versus the standard 2.7 line. The under trend shows clear value with a +14.6% ROI while overs have burned money at -23.6%. This points to a lean under approach.
Expert Analysis
Baldwin's total bases struggles stem from a fundamental power outage that's persisted across this 10-game sample. His 1.7 average against a 2.7 line represents a massive 37% shortfall, indicating either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or simple regression from earlier season production. The consistency of this underperformance is striking - Baldwin isn't just missing by small margins but failing to reach even modest expectations repeatedly. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the symmetry in his streaks, with both his longest over and under runs hitting exactly three games, suggesting neither hot nor cold streaks extend beyond that threshold. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells a story of inflated lines that haven't adjusted to Baldwin's current form, while the +14.6% under ROI confirms the market inefficiency. This isn't a player experiencing random variance - this is systematic underperformance that likely reflects real changes in his approach, health, or role. The absence of meaningful split data actually strengthens the case, as it suggests the struggles aren't situational but fundamental to his current state.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Baldwin's 37% shortfall versus his line over 10 games represents a clear market inefficiency that hasn't been properly adjusted. The ideal spot is any game where the line remains at 2.5 or higher, as his 1.7 average suggests consistent value on the under. Main risk is sudden mechanical correction or favorable matchup variance, but the persistence of this trend across different situations supports continued under betting until the line drops significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brooks Baldwin's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Baldwin has gone 4-6-0 over/under on his total bases prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over in just 40% of contests. His 60% under rate combined with a -1.0 average differential shows consistent underperformance versus market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brooks Baldwin Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Baldwin's total bases props. His 1.7 average versus the typical 2.7 line creates a 37% value gap that the market hasn't corrected. The under shows +14.6% ROI while overs have lost 23.6%, making this a clear edge.
What's Brooks Baldwin's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Baldwin is averaging just 1.7 total bases over his last 10 games, a full base below the standard 2.7 line. This -1.0 differential represents a 37% shortfall and indicates his power production has significantly declined from market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games where Baldwin's total bases line remains at 2.5 or higher, as his 1.7 average creates maximum value on unders. Avoid betting when lines drop below 2.0, as that eliminates the core inefficiency driving this trend's profitability.