Brooks Baldwin has been a home run desert over his last 10 games, hitting the over just twice while averaging 0.2 homers against a 0.5 line. The 20% over rate and crushing -61.8% ROI on overs signals a clear betting edge on the under.
Expert Analysis
Baldwin's power outage reflects a fundamental shift in his offensive approach that extends beyond normal variance. Averaging 0.2 home runs per game against a 0.5 line creates a massive 0.3 differential that's too large to ignore. The 20% over rate across 10 games suggests this isn't just bad luck—it's a pattern rooted in either mechanical adjustments, opposing pitcher strategy, or situational factors limiting his power opportunities. The current three-game under streak reinforces this trend, with Baldwin failing to reach the yard in 80% of his recent contests. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency—his longest over streak was just one game, indicating sporadic power bursts rather than sustained production. The +52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as books may be slow to adjust lines reflecting his diminished power output. This type of extended power drought often persists longer than casual bettors expect, especially for players whose home run production was already inconsistent. The sample size of 10 games provides meaningful data without being so extensive that regression becomes imminent.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Baldwin's sustained power drought creates exceptional value on home run unders, with the 0.3 negative differential offering clear mathematical edge. Target this prop in any ballpark conditions, as his struggles appear mechanical rather than environmental. Main risk is variance—one swing can flip any individual game, but the trend strongly favors continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brooks Baldwin's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Baldwin has gone 2-8-0 over/under on home runs in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. He's averaged only 0.2 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a significant negative differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brooks Baldwin Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Baldwin's 20% over rate and -0.3 differential versus the line creates clear mathematical edge. The sustained power drought shows no signs of immediate regression, making unders the sharp play.
What's Brooks Baldwin's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Baldwin is averaging 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, well below the standard 0.5 line. This creates a massive -0.3 differential that heavily favors under bets in the current market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Baldwin home run unders consistently regardless of matchup, as his struggles appear mechanical rather than situational. The trend is strongest in any ballpark, with the key being his sustained power outage across all conditions.