Brice Turang's hits prop at home presents a crystal-clear under opportunity, going 10-24-0 with just a 29.4% over rate. The Brewers second baseman averages 0.68 hits per home game against lines typically set at 1.26, creating a massive 0.6-hit differential. This is a strong lean under play.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint an unmistakable picture of Turang struggling to produce hits at American Family Field. His 0.68 hits per home game average sits well below market expectations, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home/road split tendencies. The 34-game sample size provides robust statistical significance, while the -0.6 differential indicates consistent underperformance rather than random variance. Turang's profile as a contact-oriented player with limited power makes him particularly susceptible to home park factors that may suppress his offensive output. The 7-game under streak demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while his longest over streak reached only 3 games. The -43.9% ROI on overs versus +34.8% on unders reflects not just frequency but the magnitude of his underperformance. This pattern suggests either park-specific factors affecting his approach or psychological elements impacting his home performance. The consistency of the trend across the sample period indicates this isn't a small-sample aberration but rather a legitimate exploitable market inefficiency that hasn't been properly priced.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Turang's home hits props offer solid value based on his consistent underperformance at American Family Field. The 0.6-hit differential provides meaningful edge when lines are set at typical levels around 1.26. Target this play when the line sits at 1.0 or higher, as Turang's 0.68 average creates natural value. The main risk is regression to his overall career norms, but the sample size suggests legitimate home struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brice Turang's Hits prop record home games?
Turang's hits prop record in home games stands at 10-24-0, hitting the over just 29.4% of the time across 34 games. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends among regular MLB players.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brice Turang Hits home games?
Bet under on Turang's hits props at home games. His 0.68 average creates consistent value against lines typically set around 1.26, with the under cashing 70.6% of the time historically.
What's Brice Turang's average Hits home games?
Turang averages 0.68 hits per home game compared to typical lines around 1.26, creating a significant 0.6-hit differential. This gap represents one of the largest home underperformances in baseball.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Turang hits unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher at American Family Field. Avoid when he faces soft pitching matchups or during hot streaks, though his longest over run was just three games.