Brett Wisely's home run under prop presents one of the most reliable edges in baseball betting, going under in 36 of 37 games (97.3% hit rate) with an 85.8% ROI. The Giants utility infielder averages just 0.03 home runs per game against a 0.5 line. This is a premium under play.
Expert Analysis
Brett Wisely's home run production represents a fundamental mismatch between sportsbook pricing and reality. His 0.03 home runs per game average sits 94% below the standard 0.5 line, creating massive value on the under. The 27-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects Wisely's profile as a contact-oriented utility player without legitimate power. His single home run came early in the sample period, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted their models. The -94.8% over ROI demonstrates how consistently mispriced this prop remains. Wisely's role as a defensive specialist and occasional leadoff hitter prioritizes contact and on-base skills over power production. His swing mechanics and approach generate ground balls and line drives, not the launch angle needed for consistent home run production. The Giants' spacious Oracle Park further suppresses power numbers, particularly for left-handed contact hitters like Wisely. This isn't a regression candidate—it's a structural edge based on player type and ballpark factors that persist throughout a season.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Brett Wisely's home run under prop offers exceptional value with a 97.3% hit rate and 85.8% ROI over 37 games. His contact-heavy approach and Oracle Park's dimensions create a sustainable edge against the 0.5 line. The primary risk is an outlier game with perfect conditions, but the 27-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency that justifies aggressive betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Brett Wisely props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brett Wisely's Home Runs prop record all games?
Brett Wisely has gone under his home runs prop in 36 of 37 games (97.3% hit rate) with a 1-36-0 record. His under bets have generated an 85.8% ROI, while overs have lost 94.8% of investment, making this one of the most lopsided props in baseball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brett Wisely Home Runs all games?
Bet the UNDER on Brett Wisely's home runs prop with high confidence. His 97.3% under rate, 0.03 home runs per game average, and contact-heavy approach create exceptional value against the 0.5 line. This represents a premium betting edge with consistent profitability.
What's Brett Wisely's average Home Runs all games?
Brett Wisely averages 0.03 home runs per game compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.47 differential. This 94% gap between his production and the betting line represents one of the largest structural mismatches in baseball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Brett Wisely's home runs under consistently throughout the season, as his contact-oriented profile and Oracle Park's dimensions create a sustainable edge. The 27-game under streak shows this isn't situational—it's based on fundamental player characteristics that persist across all conditions.