Brett Baty's total bases prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 10% of overs across his last 10 games with a devastating -2.2 differential from the 2.5 line. The Mets third baseman is averaging a meager 0.3 total bases per game, creating a clear lean under with strong conviction.
Expert Analysis
Brett Baty's offensive struggles have created one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, with the young third baseman failing to reach 2.5 total bases in nine of his last 10 games. The 0.3 average against a 2.5 line represents an 87% shortfall that speaks to fundamental offensive issues rather than temporary variance. Baty's current stretch includes a brutal six-game under streak, suggesting mechanical problems or confidence issues that persist across different matchups and game situations. The consistency of this underperformance—with only one over in 10 games—indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained period of offensive futility. While young players can break out suddenly, Baty's current form shows no signs of immediate improvement. The massive gap between his production and the betting line suggests oddsmakers are either slow to adjust or banking on positive regression that hasn't materialized. This creates ongoing value for under bettors, though the risk remains that any breakout game could quickly shift both performance and market perception.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Baty's 90% under rate and -2.2 differential from the line represent exceptional value that outweighs regression concerns. The ideal conditions are any game where the line remains at 2.5, as his 0.3 average provides massive cushion. Main risk is a sudden offensive breakout, but his current mechanical struggles suggest continued underperformance is more likely than immediate improvement.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brett Baty's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Brett Baty has gone 1-9-0 over/under on his total bases prop in his last 10 games, hitting just 10% of overs. He's averaging 0.3 total bases per game against the typical 2.5 line, creating a massive -2.2 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brett Baty Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Brett Baty's total bases with high confidence. His 90% under rate and 0.3 average provide exceptional value against the 2.5 line, with under bets showing +71.8% ROI during this stretch of offensive struggles.
What's Brett Baty's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Brett Baty is averaging just 0.3 total bases over his last 10 games, falling 2.2 bases short of the standard 2.5 line. This represents an 87% shortfall and indicates severe offensive struggles rather than temporary variance.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Brett Baty's total bases under is when the line remains at 2.5, providing maximum cushion against his 0.3 average. Avoid betting if the line drops significantly or if he shows signs of mechanical improvement.