Brett Baty's home run prop presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, hitting over just once in 27 games for a catastrophic 3.7% over rate. With an average of 0.04 home runs against a typical 0.5 line and 23 consecutive unders, this is a clear systematic under play.
Expert Analysis
Brett Baty's power profile represents a fundamental mismatch with standard home run props. Averaging just 0.04 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line creates a massive -0.46 differential that reflects his current offensive limitations. The 23-game under streak isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by Baty's contact issues and developing power. His minor league profile suggested eventual power development, but the major league adjustment period has been brutal. The -92.9% ROI on overs tells the story: books are pricing him as a power threat he simply isn't yet. Young third basemen often take time to translate raw power into game production, especially when facing advanced pitching that exploits swing-and-miss tendencies. Baty's strikeout rate and launch angle data likely show the mechanical issues preventing consistent barrel contact. The sample spans nearly a full calendar year, suggesting this isn't a short-term slump but rather his current ceiling. Until Baty shows sustained contact improvement and begins elevating balls with authority, the under remains the mathematically superior play. The 83.8% ROI on unders reflects market inefficiency in pricing developing power.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Brett Baty's home run props offer exceptional value on the under side, backed by a 96.3% under rate across 27 games and a -0.46 average differential. The 23-game under streak reflects genuine offensive limitations rather than bad luck. Target this prop aggressively when available, as books consistently overprice his power potential. Primary risk is eventual breakout, but current data suggests continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brett Baty's Home Runs prop record all games?
Brett Baty's home run prop record stands at 1-26-0 over/under across 27 games, producing just a 3.7% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, with 26 unders in 27 attempts spanning from June 2023 to May 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brett Baty Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Brett Baty's home run props with high confidence. The 96.3% under rate, 23-game under streak, and 83.8% ROI on unders create exceptional value. His 0.04 average against typical 0.5 lines offers consistent profit opportunities until power development occurs.
What's Brett Baty's average Home Runs all games?
Brett Baty averages 0.04 home runs per game across his 27-game sample, creating a massive -0.46 differential against the standard 0.5 line. This gap represents the difference between his current power output and market expectations, driving consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brett Baty's home run unders consistently when props are available, as the 83.8% ROI shows sustained market inefficiency. Focus on games where books maintain standard 0.5 lines despite his poor track record, maximizing the mathematical edge this trend provides.