Brent Rooker's total bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, going over just 44.4% of the time across 27 games with a -15.2% ROI on overs. His 2.11 average barely exceeds typical lines despite the positive differential, making unders the superior play.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture for Rooker's total bases production at the Coliseum. His 44.4% over rate across 27 home games signals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and actual performance. The -15.2% ROI on overs represents significant value destruction, while unders have generated a solid 6.1% return. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the persistence factor - Rooker just completed a seven-game under streak at home, his longest of the sample. The Oakland Coliseum's pitcher-friendly dimensions likely suppress extra-base hits, a crucial component for total bases props. Rooker's 2.11 home average, while slightly above his 1.91 baseline against typical lines, isn't substantial enough to justify the over frequency. The current one-game under streak suggests the trend remains intact rather than showing signs of regression. Oakland's offensive struggles at home compound the issue, as fewer RBI opportunities can limit Rooker's aggressive approach. Without favorable splits data to suggest specific conditions where Rooker exceeds expectations, the home environment appears consistently challenging for his total bases production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 44.4% over rate and negative ROI on overs create a sustainable edge, particularly given the Coliseum's pitcher-friendly environment. Target this play when Rooker faces quality pitching or in games with lower run totals. The main risk is a hot streak overwhelming the venue's constraints, but the seven-game under streak suggests the trend remains strong.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brent Rooker's Total Bases prop record home games?
Rooker's total bases prop at home shows a 12-15 over/under record (44.4% overs) across 27 games. This translates to overs hitting less than half the time, creating consistent value on the under side of his props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brent Rooker Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Rooker's total bases at home. The 44.4% over rate and -15.2% ROI on overs create a clear edge, especially with his recent seven-game under streak demonstrating the trend's persistence in Oakland's pitcher-friendly environment.
What's Brent Rooker's average Total Bases home games?
Rooker averages 2.11 total bases in home games compared to his typical 1.91 line, a modest +0.2 differential. Despite this slight edge, he still goes under 55.6% of the time, making the average misleading for betting purposes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rooker's total bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in games with lower run totals. The Coliseum's dimensions consistently suppress his power, making these conditions ideal for capitalizing on the established trend.