Bobby Witt Jr.'s hits props have been significantly underperforming over his last 10 games, going just 3-7 O/U with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. The young shortstop is averaging only 1.3 hits against a typical 1.7 line, creating a substantial 0.4 hit deficit. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Bobby Witt Jr.'s recent hitting struggles represent a clear departure from his season-long production, with the Kansas City shortstop managing just 1.3 hits per game over this 10-game sample. This 0.4 hit deficit against standard lines suggests either a mechanical adjustment period or teams successfully gameplan against his approach. The 70% under rate is particularly striking for a player of Witt's caliber, indicating this isn't just random variance. The current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, while his longest over streak maxed at just one game. September can be challenging for young players as fatigue accumulates and opposing scouts have full seasonal data. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of consistent line inflation, likely based on Witt's reputation rather than current form. Without clear injury concerns, this appears to be a temporary slump that books haven't fully adjusted to. The persistence of this trend across different opponents and situations suggests the underlying factors remain in play. However, regression toward his season norms becomes more likely as this sample grows, making timing crucial for under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bobby Witt Jr.'s 70% under rate and significant production deficit create a clear edge, but regression risk prevents high conviction. The ideal spot is when books set his line at 1.5+ hits, maximizing the gap between expectation and recent reality. Main risk is an immediate return to form that could quickly erase this edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bobby Witt Jr.'s Hits prop record last 10 games?
Bobby Witt Jr. has gone 3-7 O/U on his hits props over the last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance with under bets generating a +33.6% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bobby Witt Jr. Hits last 10 games?
Lean under on Bobby Witt Jr.'s hits props based on his recent 70% under rate and 0.4 hit deficit. The trend is strong but carries regression risk, so focus on lines set at 1.5+ hits for maximum edge.
What's Bobby Witt Jr.'s average Hits last 10 games?
Bobby Witt Jr. is averaging 1.3 hits over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 1.7 hits. This 0.4 hit deficit represents the core of the under trend and significant value gap for bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bobby Witt Jr. under bets when books set his hits line at 1.5 or higher, maximizing the gap with his recent 1.3 average. Avoid when lines drop to 1.0 as regression becomes more likely.