Bo Naylor's Total Bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 20.7% of overs across 29 games with a devastating -1.3 differential from the typical 2.16 line. Currently riding a six-game under streak, this trend shows remarkable consistency for disciplined under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Bo Naylor's home Total Bases performance reveals a systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers who consistently set lines around 2.16 while Naylor averages just 0.9 total bases per home game. This massive 1.3-base differential suggests either persistent market inefficiency or fundamental factors limiting Naylor's offensive output at Progressive Field. The 20.7% over rate indicates this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge rooted in Naylor's profile as a defense-first catcher whose offensive ceiling remains limited. His current six-game under streak represents his longest of the sample, yet the consistency of underperformance suggests this trend has staying power. The +51.4% ROI on unders demonstrates significant value extraction potential. However, the lack of recent volatility or over streaks longer than one game raises questions about whether books will eventually adjust lines downward, potentially eroding this edge. The sample size of 29 games provides reasonable confidence, though the absence of split data limits our ability to identify optimal betting spots within this already profitable trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.3-base differential and 80% under rate create a compelling mathematical edge, though the lack of line movement despite consistent underperformance suggests books may have reasons for maintaining current pricing. Target this prop when lines remain at 2.0 or higher, as Naylor's 0.9 average provides substantial cushion. Main risk is potential lineup changes or increased playing time that could alter his offensive opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bo Naylor's Total Bases prop record home games?
Bo Naylor's Total Bases prop in home games shows a 6-23-0 over/under record, hitting just 20.7% of overs. He averages 0.9 total bases per home game against typical lines around 2.16, creating a significant 1.3-base negative differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bo Naylor Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Bo Naylor's Total Bases in home games. The 80% under rate and +51.4% ROI on unders, combined with his 0.9 average against 2.16 lines, creates a clear mathematical edge for disciplined under betting.
What's Bo Naylor's average Total Bases home games?
Bo Naylor averages 0.9 total bases per home game, significantly below the typical 2.16 line set by oddsmakers. This 1.3-base differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations in the prop betting landscape.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bo Naylor Total Bases unders when lines remain at 2.0 or higher, maximizing the cushion against his 0.9 average. His consistent underperformance makes this prop bettable in most home game situations regardless of opponent or game context.